Typically the Utilities sector ( XLU ) serves as a hedge in recessionary times. This sector is made up of companies such as water, electricity, natural gas . Companies within this sector usually offer steady and consistent dividends and are less volatile relative to the general market.
The XLU:SPY ratio suggests that when it breaks out above 240-SMA, XLU tends to outperform the SPY . That is what we call RISK-OFF. On the other hand, when it breaks below 240-SMA, SPY tends to perform the XLU . That is what we call RISK-ON.
Currently, the ratio XLU:SPY already tested the 240-SMA and found resistance. I see there was a negative divergence between XLU:SPY ratio and its back in March 2020. Ratio just broke daily uptrend line. My conclusion, we may see higher numbers for the SPY in the following weeks.