The long-term stock market trend unquestionably continues to be an upward one. However, there are seasonal and other factors (such as market breadth, etc) that may be pointing towards a potential pause or reversal.
Since no single indicator is fool-proof, a "weight of the evidence" approach is always warranted. Such an approach ideally includes a variety of indicators that could offer an advance signal of a switch from "risk on" to "risk off" environments. One such measure to consider in your toolbox is how defensive equities such as Utilities (typically sought out for their yield) are faring against the broader equity market. The accompanying relative strength measure plotting $XLU against $SPY has broken trend and reversing upward for the last several weeks. Again, not overwhelming by itself, but when coupled with other indicators (such as previously posted JNK or XLP updates) it warrants continued monitoring in the coming weeks.
Since no single indicator is fool-proof, a "weight of the evidence" approach is always warranted. Such an approach ideally includes a variety of indicators that could offer an advance signal of a switch from "risk on" to "risk off" environments. One such measure to consider in your toolbox is how defensive equities such as Utilities (typically sought out for their yield) are faring against the broader equity market. The accompanying relative strength measure plotting $XLU against $SPY has broken trend and reversing upward for the last several weeks. Again, not overwhelming by itself, but when coupled with other indicators (such as previously posted JNK or XLP updates) it warrants continued monitoring in the coming weeks.
Order cancelled:
SPY has exhibited renewed life of late and breadth thrusts are being demonstrated as we move back to "risk on"
