XLU Long trading opportunity(swing-trading) 1

Sep 8

I expect a swing of about $4-$6 all the way up to $85+- within 2-5 months.

I am risking money in the form of a short put option to expire the 19'th of September (will be followed by a covered call opened if assigned).

My entry price is $82

This is a buy and hold trade in a lower risk lower volatility instrument, you might have to hold for 6+- months before it reaches the target, XLU rises slowly but rarely goes down 20%+ for no big reason (there has to be underlying market crash or severe macro negative events) so I don't see a lot of downside remaining, I do think it can go lower than $80 but that would then be 10% down from its peak, but at max I would place it around 15% down from its peak before it starts going up.

Also historically lower interest rates do benefit the utilities sector.

Sep 11

Note

opened a long swing trade around $84 of 100, still holding my short put for $82 and will keep premiums.

Sep 16

Note

added another 100 at 84.80, expect a immediate spike in XLU when interest rate decision tomorrow is 25-basis-point cut, but might exit early and take profit around $86/$87 if the tone of the US Fed is geared towards slower very modest rate cuts in the future.

Stop loss is at $84.40

Sep 17

Trade closed: stop reached

hit stop, I'm out..., now its just a wait and see

Sep 17

Note

re-entered at $84.44

Oct 1

Note

exited