SPDR Select Sector Fund - Consumer DiscretionaryArca
Description
⋅
Home loans, credit card loans, student loans, pay day loans, insurance, annuities, derivatives, pension funds, bond markets. Crypto and the stock market combined are no match for the world debt mountain.
Very insightful and thought provoking. Thank you for your engaging and valuable commentary!
optionfarmers
⋅
@roman0losses, glad you think so, thank for commenting!
luxerich
⋅
The question is how do we find out if we are going to have a recession? So a lot of the recent problems are nearly solved:
- Covid -> they call it now endemic, so no problem anymore - fright container shipments -> cost spike comes down back to "nearly normal" - Europe / World - Energy costs come rapidly down; Europe Gas storages are full - Media tells no black swan anymore - China reopening - more cheap products available -> inflation down (supply side up) - Inflation YOY nearly 10% comes thus automatic down - FED will pivot soon? Question is how fast.
So for me it is like more bullish, like back to normal, to fill the bubble some more time? I understand your points, that the market is not cheap yet. But where are the reasons to get cheaper now?
Or are we already in the start of a recession?! Rate of change of Jobless claims is elevated, if you ignore the 2020 Covid unnormal event spike it is better visible.
Thanks for your great content and your very calm and factual reporting away from all these YouTube kiddy moon boys. Your content / account is just so underrated. Please keep going :) Cheerz
optionfarmers
⋅
@luxerich, I think you get it 100%. In my experience, if its not on sale it means I can wait on the sidelines for a discount opportunity. many stocks are priced at 20-25x cashflow and expect growth 2023, so if anything disrupts that, then bad things. So youre correct, no problems right now and we have no crystal ball. Lucky for me, market only goes up down and sideways. I can always just wait for a big opportunity and keep playing around with options spreads to keep busy. Thanks for the feedback. I appreciated your comments and encouragement.