649bruno
Long

XME At Key 8 Year Chart Level: Fibonacci .236- A Harmonic Pivot

AMEX:XME   SPDR S&P METALS AND MINING ETF
80 3 5
I am a person who believes in harmonic patterns .
XME-and the metals that comprise this-ETF are repeating an 8 year pattern.
In the mid 2008 sell-off-XME crawled back to retracement level .50, but this took two years.
Look on the above chart at Retracement Level (1).
Then look at Retracement Fibonacci (2), which is a FAILURE at Fib .236.
Now look at Retracement Level (3), a two year battle at a retracement of .50 which ended in FAILURE, with a price decline to $12.
Now look at Retracement Level (4) - this is Fibonacci .236 AGAIN.
I have been very BULLISH on-XME, but to get to Fibonacci .382 (about $36.79), XME-must not fail at Fibonacci .236.

If you are long and have profits, keep your stops close. XME-has come long and strong. A pause is due.
Furthermore, I have drawn an EIGHT YEAR DOWN TREND LINE from 2008 to the present.
This is a very powerful negative. If-XME is to continue its current bullish trend , it has to penetrate $30 and hold.
After a pause, look for higher highs and lower lows. If you don't see this then protect yourself and do not get caught in the resumption of the year 2008 down-trend. My upside forecast for-XME (14 days ago) was Fibonacci .382 ($36.79). To do this, XME-must not fail at the current level of Fibonacci .236.
If XME-fails, then the gold-complex will most likely be weaker also. Why? There are a lot of gold-stocks in-XME. I published a dozen of these charts 14 days ago.
As always, good luck to you. Don.

goodguy PRO
4 months ago
Bruno thanks for this analysis. What are the indicators at the top of the chart. Do they contribute to how you see this.
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649bruno goodguy
4 months ago
The three indicators: (1) The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic; (2) The top middle indicator is vortex; (3) The Top (bar-type) indicator is the "Awesome Indicator", this measures the "phase energy" of the stock (this indicator made famous by Bill Williams and his "Fractals" technique).
These three are slow to move on a weekly chart, but the top one (RSI / Stochastic) helps identify overbought. When a weekly chart approaches a key trend-line level I closely examine four hour and daily charts for any signs of weakening. On daily charts (and four hour charts) the top three indicators move rather quickly and help me to confirm or deny the anticipated move. If you back-track on charts that I published, you will see I have a discipline called "Trade-Map", which stands for:
TRADE = 1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
.....MAP = 6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance.
From these disciplines I have a list of "top ten technicals" that guide me.
The "top ten" are a gathering of the "best practices" of many gifted technicians I have studied since 1983.
I hope this helps. Thank you very much for your thumbs up. Don.
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goodguy PRO 649bruno
4 months ago
Bruno thanks for taking the time to explain this to me. Its all very impressive. I've never studied Fractals. Is there one book that I should get to study it? Also the the "Trade Map" approach your creation or is that something I could read about too?
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