Monero is a really interesting coin to me. I've been watching it for a while. It seems to be one of the few coins that is very-much anti-hype, and relies heavily on actual usage, community funding, and other measures of "organic growth". For a coin that has been battle-tested and around since 2014, you'd think it deserves a much higher price-tag! But where others see lackluster performance, I see one of the comfiest longs of all time. The risk/reward is insanely attractive. You can own >1/1millionth of the supply (until ~2040), today, for $4000-5000. This proportional network share is greater than or equal to (depending on when you compare, due to Monero's tail-emission) owning 21 bitcoins on the bitcoin network (currently worth more than $1,200,000).
Locally I see a potential bull-flag. But on a longer time-frame, there is undeniable fundamental backing that makes it impossible for me to ignore Monero (XMR).
Let's review some facts:
1) Monero is cheaper to use than Bitcoin. I have been looking at the stats from Monero.how to get accurate data on median transaction fee for the last 100 tx's on both monero and bitcoin. Consistently, monero is LOADS cheaper to broadcast. Currently, XMR median-fee is $0.0121 compared to BTC's median-fee of $28.6950 during the same time-frame.
2) Monero is faster than Bitcoin. XMR Average Block-time: 2 minutes! compare this to bitcoin's average block-time which has been only as low as 7.5 minutes in the past 3 years, and as high as 15.6 minutes, with the average 5-times as long as monero's around ~10-minutes.
3) Monero has faster proportional transaction-growth than bitcoin. Again, you can source this data from many sources but I choose to look at the stats on monero.how on a daily/weekly basis, personally. Take a look at the section in the middle titled Monthly transaction count. Monero has been doubling year after year while bitcoin's transaction count stagnates. Likely due to the bitcoin-maximalist narrative shifting from "A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System" to a so-called "store of value" or "digital gold", instead; this narrative shift is likely fueled by the slow block-time and increasing fees pricing out most practical use.
4) Monero has built-in consumer protections. Monero is the only truly digital-cash crypto out there. It provides consumer protection so powerful that the IRS wants to crack it and the darknet is dropping Bitcoin entirely. Now, some people view monero's use in illicit activity as a bad thing. I would like to remind you that Bitcoin comes from the exact same background, with it being the only payment option on darknet-markets for years, and anybody who isn't buying Monero due to regulatory/illicit-use concerns will also have missed buying Bitcoin when it was worth <$1000 as during its early years the same exact regulatory concern existed. Furthermore, the corporate adoption of Bitcoin has not even been stopped by ugly, immutable facts (that people seldom like to discuss for obvious reasons) like this
Sit back, and enjoy the ride, my friends. DeFi and NFT are the hype right now, but Monero is inevitable. The price has doubled even after the bittrex-nothing-burger delisting scare (seriously? we lost <0.1% of daily volume) because Grayscale has announced their potential monero trust All of this is going to look so obvious in hindsight. It just moves slowly. I think buying 1.87-18.7 Monero, at least, if you can afford it, will most likely lead to a fantastic return on a local timeframe for USD and almost certainly on a longer time-frame (yearly) as companies like Chainalysis continue to further control transparent blockchains and investors seek consumer protections like the privacy that monero offers.
That being said: this is not financial advice; I am not a financial advisor. All investments are inherently risky and there is a possibility of losing all of your principal investment. I think that covers the legal bases ;)
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We are still in bull-flag, though, It appears I drew my wedge too low. tightening volatility range (higher lows, lower highs) indicate a major move will likely occur by end of month!
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looking very strong. Bitfinex:XMRUSDSHORTS still going up, but so is our XMR/USD price. We are hurting bears where it hurts the most: their wallet.
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June may have been too conservative... xmr/btc heating up while bitcoin holds the line, we could be gunning for ATH by June at this rate!
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Target firmly reached about a month before I expected it to. Congrats holders!
This post aged well. Currently loving Monero for the 1-2 year timeline
chickenboye
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@dominicflo97, agreed! I think 2-3k is very possible. USD ATH generates lots of hype, fomo, awareness. But we are just getting started on XMR/BTC! Very exciting times for a monero holder.
chimpflow
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Wow thanks for the amazing write-up. I didn’t notice the obvious bull flag!! I completely agree Monero is fundamentally the most comfy coin to sit on based purely on fundamentals. People are afraid of governments banning it but they are assuming they don’t need to think bigger picture and can catch the hype gains before Monero takes off.
chickenboye
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@chimpflow, Glad you enjoy. "People are afraid of governments banning it but they are assuming they don’t need to think bigger picture and can catch the hype gains before Monero takes off. " - I agree. There is no real disrespect for monero in the cryptospace, only regulatory concern. You can't ban math, people. and For every exchange delisting that occurs, volume is displaced to another exchange; the opportunity cost for exchanges ignoring monero (and it's revenue generated from fees) will become impossible to ignore. Many people think they can ride the defi/nft wave and jump back into xmr before it takes off, but I think such thinking could leave you priced out if you aren't careful.
ddx27
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its basically the same narrative that btc had in 2010-2014 people were to scared to touch it due to regulatory issues. I see the same trajectory that btc had obviously with less hype and gains.
chickenboye
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@ddx27, I agree, history may not repeat itself 1:1 but it often rhymes. Thanks for the follow btw <3
thanks man