There is a lot of bullishness in the XMR chart despite everything that is going along globally with politics and economics. For a long time I have watched XMR with the assumption that it may be forming a massive double top but so far that has not materialized
A zoom in onto the handle shows a clear falling wedge which has a bullish bias. There is a double bottom that has been forming late since late January and it seems that the inverse head and shoulders is beginning to perform. I hope for this to proceed rather impulsively in short order and I have my entry at the neckline of the pattern. Price action can squirt right out of the wedge or price may flip the wedge resistance to support with a retest.
The main chart shows some of the other targets in red on the fib or at the full flag pole performance. There is chance that we get a throwback to the height of the cup at about $515 once we reach some intermittent targets.
Price action has found support on both the 200SMA and the 200EMA as shown below. Candle bodies on the EMA and wicks to the SMA. Finding support on such long term moving averages is bullish but also opens price action to test it repeatedly as support before really taking off.
The moving averages are under a weekly death cross so I expect to see some activity at the 50 SMA. Hopefully a nice flag continuation pattern but I can address that in due time.
The main noise in my head about this trade is my intense long term bearishness on equities and how crypto has generally moved in sync with with equities. We don't have the same data with crypto and equities running in opposite directions that we do with say equities and gold or silver. But bullish chart patterns are bullish chart patterns and I am going to trade this bullishly.
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XMR has done rather well the last several weeks, going from the 150s to hanging around the 190s after a spike up to 208.
Both the 0.618 flagpole extension on the cup and handle and the 2 on the falling wedge draw are at the 2100-2200 level so I would expect the first major stall and retrace there.
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Price has popped above the 200 day and is finding support on top of it. I would suspect the next high probability move is a a quick squirt to the 400d SMA
As this chart shows, the 400D is approximately the 50 week and if price action clears that it will be above all moving averages and primed for that blue sky break out.
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xmr just squirted between the 200 and 400 SMAs. Looking very good. Blue sky break here very shortly.
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It has been over a year since I have addressed this idea. I feel things have devleoped well enough to put some margin on XMR. The big picture is still a cup and handle but the smaller chart formation is a symmetrical triangle in blue. The overall target is still around $30,000.
I hope to see XMR double over the next couple of months.
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It has been an exciting week for XMR and now price is consolidating right at the resistance of the tringle.
I am currently doing nothing. If Monero comes down to much I am taking a 7% loss. I am going to take a wee bit of profit off at the target to pay down some debt but let the rest ride.
XMR is about to flip the monthly VSTOP. I am feeding this position until it is over $2000. I have a full idea on this coming soon.
this cycle ath for altcoins would be tremendous but i think bitcoin will stop at 110K all money goes to altcoins, its a super altseason
jungleway2021
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Great analysis as always. Have been keeping an eye on this cup and handle formation. It will be interesting to watch this play out.
This_Guhy
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@jungleway2021, During the 2015-2017 bull run XMR had multiple 200% pumps and then drew back 50-70%. If this cup and handle is on a flag pole this will be a crazy ride.
Cryptotheque
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Do you think there's any "fundamental" bullishness regarding XMR in the light of an increased demand for it in times of war such as we have at the moment in Eastern Europe?
This_Guhy
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@Cryptotheque, The fundamental usecase for XMR doesn't change just because their is a war but war does make the usecase more compelling in an immediate sense. There are lists of vendors that take XMR and as the list grows and includes more onramps into the traditional economy the more it makes sense to have xmr.