XOM : Open long before the Flag breakout !

Exxon Mobil             , major oil             company, has just published its quarterly results. Its profits went down (2.7b$ vs 4.2b$ the previous year). Its cost reduction has not compensated the lower margins due falling oil             prices.

Due to this, the stock has opened today with a bearish gap and has drawn a shadow at 85.50$ which is the lower bound of the flag.

Technically, we can now expect the stock to go up for the few next trading sessions because :
- mid term trend is upside, as shown by the ascending trendline support
- the flag is a continuation pattern ; the stock entered it from below, thus it is likely to exit by the top (theorical target indicated on the chart)
- the today's bounce took place at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upside wave (first blue arrow).

Here is the long strategy :
- open long at current price (86.09$ approx)
- stop @ 84.20$ (just below the 62.8% retracement, i.e. the last bottom)
- target @ 88.80$ as a security (expecting the theorical target of the flag to be reached seems to unlikely to happen)

Feel free to leave a comment about this idea !
Bull Put spread 80/75 placé. 14% maxi en 3 mois à l'expiration.
Ca a l'air d'être une bonne idée, tant du point de vue directionnel que de la volatilité implicite qui devrait se tasser (même si le spread limitera l'effet de la baisse de volatilité sur la prime).
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