XOM appears to be entering the blow off top phase of this enormous rally since 2020 lows.
1:1 fib extensions taken from the low and the thrust candles give targets of $109 and $112, however using 1.13 overshoot ratios could see XOM get as high as $124.
If it did get there it would touch the upper trendline of this long expanding pattern from 2008 of which appears to be itself a very long Wyckoff distribution pattern which would eventually see XOM return to much lower price along with USOIL.
Worth noting that the 2020 low was the first time XOM has fallen below the 200 month MA. Prior to that all price action had been corrective to the upside since 2008 top.
Down the road I very much expect XOM to touch the lower trendline and there is also an enormous gap at $32 that may fill at some point. This may provide a good entry to buy.
That said if this is a very long breakdown pattern and if XOM did top around somewhere between here and $124 then a 1.618 extension from the 3 significant pivots since 2008 would see XOM return to around $16-19.
Put IV is very low and a trade could benefit well from IV expansion.
It seems there were many in the sector that moved disproportionate to the move in Crude Oil today. Short covering? Overall market strength? XOM probably one of the strongest moves. Funny looking acceleration out the formation it was in the last few sessions. No reason to doubt your price target will be hit but for other reasons... I hope you're wrong because that's a monthly chart.
dRends35
⋅
@oliverrathbun, It is monthly but current candle is only 6 days old. XOM accelerating into blow off top phase while USOIL approaching the latter phase of the corrective bounce, whether that be a retracement or UpThrust higher high it is typical of a market topping out.
oliverrathbun
⋅
@dRends35, From a time perspective it may not be too far away given the magnitude of the moves that can occur in a blow off. That March 2020 low I have found to be incredibly relevant from a Fibonacci perspective as to where markets have gone as well as corrected back to.
oliverrathbun
⋅
@dRends35, One or two more days could get us to the top? This is about the same as one of your targets?