Oil prices have been on a tear lately, driven by a combination of travel recovery and inflation expectations. Oil and gas stocks have been rising along with them. (Other commodities prices are climbing as well, by the way, which bodes well for value stocks for the foreseeable future.)
Oil and gas companies still looks reasonably valued, with roughly 10-15% upside to median valuation of the last 4 years. The space still offers some of the best dividends available, even after a number of companies made dividend cuts last year. However, companies in the space are also still financially pretty weak. Free cash flow has plummeted toward zero even on some of the most secure oil majors. So there's definitely some risk.
In technical terms, I noticed that XOP looks to be making a repeating fractal pattern. If the fractal continues, then we ought to see the price rise more or less straight up from the current close of $72 to my target at about $80, before pulling back toward the trend line. Be aware that I've not traded fractals much, so I don't really know how likely this is to play out. Just posting the idea here for future reference.
Oil and gas companies still looks reasonably valued, with roughly 10-15% upside to median valuation of the last 4 years. The space still offers some of the best dividends available, even after a number of companies made dividend cuts last year. However, companies in the space are also still financially pretty weak. Free cash flow has plummeted toward zero even on some of the most secure oil majors. So there's definitely some risk.
In technical terms, I noticed that XOP looks to be making a repeating fractal pattern. If the fractal continues, then we ought to see the price rise more or less straight up from the current close of $72 to my target at about $80, before pulling back toward the trend line. Be aware that I've not traded fractals much, so I don't really know how likely this is to play out. Just posting the idea here for future reference.
