Jang, well done.. you keep bringing great things to my attention.
if it climbs a bit, i t may explode up.
jangseohee
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haha Yacine, apologize to distract you :-)
the above chart is linear, and channel bottom for worst case scenario, i cant rule that out
it would also mean SPX crash!
YaKa
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no no.. It s great.
it may fall further but there is something here and an intermediate rebound is possible.
jangseohee
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Wave 4 huh
YaKa
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your chart is great to map extremes.... good to keep in mind if things turn sour...
One thing i am thinking about: a deep crisis lasts 2/3 years.. not 6months... so even if gold is going to 25... it is probalby not imminent.
jangseohee
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I don take Black swan, its crap
My TA master says:
Do you recall I mentioned this during course ...
When trend is up, NO bad news can cause it to go down. Just knee-jerk reaction, and uptrend would resume.
When trend is down, NO good news can stop it. Just slow down the slide for a while, and downmove would resume.
YaKa
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I agree. However, if you had been short CHF last week in a leverage fashion.. i think you would call your mentor to tell him that black swan do indeed exist.
jangseohee
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if he is stop out, it is just "technical" incident for him :-)
YaKa
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will pm you.
jangseohee
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So "if" crude oil really fall to 25-30... it is not due to black swan..
bearish trend JUST wants to end there :-)
if it climbs a bit, i t may explode up.