The question on everyone's mind right is... When will the altcoin market recover?
WHAT IS GOING ON?
There seems to be a serious misunderstanding on the way markets move, I see a lot of comparisons to the tech bubble, although from a cyclical standpoint the principles are similar, you need to realise that the details will always change.
As you can see from my chart I have listed XRP, ETH, LTC and DASH which are all quoted against BTC.
Let's take a look at all of these trading pairs individually.
1. XRP/BTC
As you can see from 2014 to 2017 price went through a major correction of 95%, imagine you were holding XRP from the top... This is how many of you may be feeling right now.
Many of you could still be holding XRP from the previous top.
Price has corrected the exact same amount as it did previously, we're currently sitting at a 95% correction for 2017.
2. ETH/BTC
Ethereum went through a major correction which lasted over 9 months, this decline was 80%.
Now we are experiencing a similar move, the current correction started 6 months ago and we are at a downfall of 83%.
As you can see price has kept a stable price structure on the weekly chart, providing a solid support level at the current price.
3. LTC/BTC
86% decline from 2014 to 2015.
90% decline from 2015 to 2017.
Where are we now? Currently in a corrective phase at a 76% decline.
4. DASH/BTC
90% decline throughout 2014.
80% decline throughout 2015.
Current decline at 73%.
I don't want to drag it out too much, you guys get the gist of it.
I mentioned in my BTC analysis yesterday... "as a general rule, the greater the amplitude of price during the major phase... The greater the correction will be".
Think about this in comparison to the charts shown, you cannot expect an asset to increase 10x or 20x and correct 30% followed by the same move consistently.
I recommend to take a step back from the charts every now and then and evaluate what is truly happening, the altcoin market won't disappear overnight.
This may be a wake up call for many of you, from this point forward start taking your trading/investing seriously instead of buying into pump and dumps or chasing 1000% returns on sh*tcoins.
I want what is best for everyone, don't take that too personally :)
Just to add I used a logarithmic scale for all 4 charts.
I will be adding more analysis to this idea, there's so much that I could not cover it all in one, I've got a lot more thought behind this.
This post is open to discussion, feel free to leave your own analysis below.
Comment
⋅
An important update as requested by several of my followers.
Here is the comparison for XRP, ETH, LTC and DASH quoted against USDT.
Use these charts in relation to the ones provided in the original analysis.
You'll notice the price structure is far more appealing as BTC is not murdering the price but they have also went through serious corrections, I've only measured the ones of significance, you guys can measure every impulse and correction on the asset you're trading.
Comment
⋅
From the chart above in comparison to the charts quoted in BTC.
It appears XRP and ETH have went through a full correction on BTC, as they correction figures are almost exact in both situations.
XRP: 95% and 95%
ETH: 80% and 83%
Both of those assets appear to have found support on USDT charts.
However, LTC and DASH are at the opposite end of the scale and are possibly still due a further correction.
There current correction figures are further apart from the previous.
LTC: 86% and 76% (10% difference)
DASH: 90%, 80% and 73% (average being 85, difference is 12%)
In relation to their USDT charts both assets look like they may move lower to find support before the next move up.
On their BTC charts, they are both in close proximity of major support.
I do not see DASH returning to the bottom of the ascending channel, but a minor support may be found before the next impulse.
LTC may return to the trendline before continuing the move higher.
Comment
⋅
Well done to everyone who bought these assets after hitting a market low following the aggressive declines, the next major phase is well underway.
Good analysis. People should get out NOW to minimize their losses. If BTC rallies, alts will continue to bleed; if it dumps, alts will bleed more. The only way alts will go up would be if BTC consolidates.
saxonlucius
⋅
To be totally and completely clear about this, I think everyone should know that chart, indicators and all of this, is completely and totally irrelevant in crypto. According to every projection, Bitcoin never would have hit the peak that it did yesterday. These indicators and charts just complicate the entire thing. Inherently people want order from something that looks disorderly, but all the chart analysis in the world is not going to help anyone. The only indicator that you need is price. This is the single most essential indicator. PRICE. As it is now. That's all you need to know. The indicator overlays have very rarely helped me before. Some indicators are helpful in telling you how people are shifting money around and consolidating or diversifying, but to be successful trading, you don't need any charts at all.
corganmusic
⋅
@saxonlucius, coming onto a charting site and saying "to be successful trading, you don't need any charts at all," tells me all I need to know.
Now this is how altcoins should be analysed: longer time frame (check), against the dollar (check), against the bitcoin (check), noting the underlying trend (check). I'll be looking to learn from you, sir. Thanks!
One thing I've thought about is that the argument often heard - "if BTC will fail, so will altcoins" is that the logic applies the other way around too - "if BTC will succeed, so will altcoins" (well ok not all of them individually, but as a whole). I don't see altcoins going away or becoming worthless anytime soon. I think they'll just follow BTC around in their own cycles, whatever the FIAT price level of BTC will be. If the world is going to value one crypto, BTC to insane highs, why wouldn't it value the others too. There's as much/little sense in having the BTC price level of today as there is with any altcoin with equivalent tech and sufficient media exposure.
If institutional money is now pouring into BTC with the CME thing and everything, I'd reckon it's only a matter of time it will start pouring into other cryptos as well. Altcoins might come back with a bang.