Hello, it's time to take another look at the sleeping giant XRP. XRPBTC has been doing a gigantic falling wedge since 2 years now, and the wedge could potentially still drag on for almost the entire year 2020. The latest possible date for this huge breakout will be November 2020.
It of course depends entirely on what BTC is doing, because all alts are just still following BTC mostly.
If BTCUSD hits the old all time high of 20k earlier than expected, we should also assume that XRPBTC will have the breakout sooner. Last time, XRP only started going vertical AFTER BTC hit the old all-time high, so in early 2017 the first pump, the second big one in early 2018.
If XRP does a double pump feature again this rally, it could go something like drawn here.
Now what does this mean for XRPUSD? It means we'll stay mostly flat for the whole time until BTC hits 20k, so in the range 0.15 to 0.5 USD. Hard to say where exactly, but in this channel. I don't think it will make a new low, because BTC probably won't fall much any more.
For XRPUSD this means, the first pump could go as high as 3-5 USD, the second one then (when BTC is at 100k), up to a maximum of around 50 USD sometime in 2021.
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It's time to update this idea. This one here has proven to be the one which XRP will likely follow.
Back in 2019 when everyone was thinking a huge XRP pump would be coming, I cautioned that XRP behaves differently than most coins. It likes drawing giant falling wedges in XRPBTC, it did so a few times since 2013 already. So now that BTC seems to finally start pumping, in case BTC will really now enter a bullmarket, which becomes very likely over 10k, then XRPBTC will start falling more. XRPUSD will remain about constant. We can expect XRPUSD to hover around 30 cents plusminus for the entire BTC rally, which will of course extremely annoy some people.
Then, when BTC hits 20k, and then probably will dump, consolidate and need another try to take the 20k which I think might happen by the end of the year, only then will XRP pump. And the XRPBTC wedge tells us also that this will be the case by the end of the year. Patience is always key.
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Still perfectly on track. BTCUSD rising, XRPUSD staying the same now, XRPBTC therefore falling, exactly as predicted. Breakout for XRPUSD and XRPBTC when BTC hits 20k.
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We are still on track. The breakout will happen as soon as BTC reaches the 20k area.
btc can drop to 6 k levels but dominance will still rise and ripple can go further down
3 -2 month later is key level for us
MexGT
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Still looking good my friend.
SebastianofMoon
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@MexGT, Yes, it's following the falling wedge nicely :)
gigabyte3d
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@FlaviusTodorius67, You think we can reach 500 sats?
MexGT
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confirmed breakout? xD
shahesam
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still looking good! :)
OneFourOneTrading
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still looking good
K-Pierro
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Thanks for updating the XRPBTC idea !
Good to see that XRP keeps on behaving as expected during each phase of the BTC cycle. Like you mentioned, XRP is about to enter the most frustrating and annoying part of its price action, where BTC relentlessly climbs to new highs while XRP stays flat and lifeless for months. Of course, once BTC retakes its 20k all time high and holds it, things will start changing dramatically for XRP !
SebastianofMoon
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@K-Pierro, Hi K-Pierro, exactly! Yes, the XRPBTC chart will now go as drawn, should BTCUSD continue to rise. I think it will, but it can't be known 100%. If BTC really should start the next bull cycle now, and the halving is almost here, so the probability is high, then indeed XRP will start the most frustrating part.
Most people will fold and sell their XRP holdings, they always do, in every cycle, I've witnessed it time and time again, lol. Almost no one in the crypto space has the patience to wait years upon years. XRP will be extremely rewarding to those who had the patience to hold it over many years :) Later this year when BTC hits 20k, XRP will go berserk, and then all people will buy back XRP in a panic, creating a huge rally.
K-Pierro
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Hopefully BTC continues to behave as expected and performs like it does in a usual halving year ! It looks like the high S&P500 correlation in March only caused temporary damage and things seem on track again. XRP has also been following its expected behavior very closely as it did in previous BTC halving cycles and it seems to still be on track since the last ATH. The current XRPBTC level matching the levels recorded in March-April 2016, a few months before halving. A slow bleed down to 900 sats in the next 8 months as you drew on your latest chart seems to be right on point, since it was the region XRPBTC was sitting at in both early 2013 and early 2017 when BTC approached the halving year ATH reclaim zone. These few months will most likely mark an ATH in frustration levels for XRP enthusiasts and the best buying opportunity of the 4 year cycle !
iam following your chart closly
btc can drop to 6 k levels but dominance will still rise and ripple can go further down
3 -2 month later is key level for us