Today, I will discuss a long position that I’ve made by investing in XRP. As always, let’s start with fundamentals:
Fundamentals: XRP can be very controversial especially because of the fact that it deals with banks. Many bitcoin lovers’ critics XRP for the fact that we are dealing with banks while bitcoin was made to fight their strategies (printing money and stealing money from us by increasing debts and inflation). This is true indeed but we shouldn’t forget that banks are crucial in the actual economy. Also if banks start to use XRP, it means that they are believing that our technology (blockchain) is better than theirs which make Bitcoin more credible. Also, as investors, we can make a lot of money if we profit from the system. XRP is not like other crypto currencies for the simple reason: The Supply is fixed and the fees are very tiny. We can’t have the both for others (except in the fork of XRP: lumen): Miners and Minter should be rewarded to mine or mint. I can’t see a miner paying his electricity bills and buying servers just for fun and without being rewarded. That’s where banks came in help. They can invest in the servers because XRP help them to solve many problems: They will be no intermediate banks for international transfers, the fees are very low, instant transactions… This help them to make very competitive prices for their services and profits from a margin (the real fees are ~ null). Moreover, the fees of XRP are destroyed and not given to the servers that run the network. This means that through time and by adopting XRP in the bank transfers, the supply of XRP will be reduced and will push up the price. I can’t predict the price that XRP will be considered very expensive because of its tiny fees and I won’t be surprised if it exceeds the 10$ (But I’ll we be surpised if it does in a short time). Why ripple and not Lumen? XRP has already conviced 36 clients (banks) to use their technology. Technicals : As always, my strategy is to invest/swing instead of buying and selling without hitting my targets. That’s why I put a great importance to Fibonacci and to fundamental part. Here we can see that we are near the bottom and the next sell should be near 0.00031134 which is more than 300% of profits. I’ve added Ichimoku to see if the bull is very near and as you can see we’re too near from touching the cloud. A double bottom pattern also can be seen when touching the cloud. My Selling strategy is to sell 50% at the level 1.414 and distribute the remaining between 1.414 and 1.618 level. Should you wait to touch the cloud? My opinion is no. The risk ratio isn’t interesting (you risk to not enter in the trade).
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BTC start to correct: the XRP may surge before touching the cloud.
@ustcoin, "Should you wait to touch the cloud? My opinion is no. The risk ratio isn’t interesting (you risk to not enter in the trade)." So yeah, you should
ustcoin
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@sabirdeux, thank you so what are you thinking about Stellar(XLM) is it good too?
sabirdeux
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@ustcoin, not much. Stellar is for me just speculation and nothing else. They succeded at pushing interest of stellar by giving free lumens to bitcoin holders but there's no fondamental argument that can back you up from a decline. History has shown that speculators buy lumens when XRP begin to make a move but that's just speculation. So I strongly advice against buying lumens or shorting it.
Do you have an estimate of when it will hit the level 1.414?
I am fairly new at this, where is the cloud?
sabirdeux
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@jagomez75, no I can't predict when it will hit 1.414. This depends when banks and hedge funds will start to push the price up (breakout). My feelings is it will breakout in one month but this remeans my feelings ( I don't have indiders informations).
For the cloud that I'm talking about is the one of Ichimoku (many good article can be found in google). To make it simple, it's the colored area between the green and orange lines.