So when trying to understand what the hell XRP is doing, I looked at the chart further back in history.
Then I noticed an interesting fractal pattern early in XRP's history, in the 2013-2014 era, when the coin was still young.
Turns out, XRPBTC back then did something extremely similar. Eerily similar actually, and that although the situation back then was absolutely different.
It did the same doube peak structure, then the fakeout pump, and after that dropping even lower, before then starting to recover and kreeping slowly upwards in XRPBTC for a very long time. Basically it kept creeping up for a year until there was a pretty impressive rally in XRPBTC in the middle of the BTC bearmarket.
This is a rally that many people seem to forget. I don't know what happened back then, even though I was in the market, back then I had other coins and didn't yet understand the utility of XRP.
So XRP can do rallies even in BTC bearmarkets, I assume there must have been some kind of strong bullish news.
The similarity to today is obvious: Depending on when the SEC case is resolved, I assume XRPBTC will be creeping upwards slowly, and then when the case is resolved, BOOM, XRPBTC will see a rally no matter what BTC does. Repeat, no matter if BTC is in a mini bearmarket or if it is at 200k.
I have been following the case, and I think the probability for settlement is extremely high, followed by XRP winning the case. But since the SEC cannot sue other crypto companies if Ripple wins, hence those A-holes won't get funds from penalty fees (yes this is actually the business model of this very cool and absolutely not corrupt UA government agency), they will most likely settle so that they can continue suing. Or Ripple will decide not to settle and crush the SEC, so that the crypto sector is protected in the future from their immoral suing behavior.
Anyways, so depending on WHEN this happens, I assume that we will then see an impressive rally in XRPBTC, and until then a slow creep upwards.
As always, what does this mean for XRPUSD? Well, this of course depends 100% on BTC, so please keep that in mind.
If BTC does the mini bearmarket now, accordinlgy the XRPUSD price will be lower. So for example settlement is reached, XRPBTC starts to rally for 6-8 weeks, peaking at 0.00025-0.0003, and BTC is at only 30k-ish at the peak, we are looking at a top of 7-9 USD.
However, should the case drag out until late 2022, and BTC is then already at 200k, accordingly this means that XRP will surge from a baseline of a few dollars, to around 50 USD.
We must be patient :) But I still believe the reward will be worth it.
Until then, XRP will just follow BTC. So one can trade XRP like BTC.
I think that BTC will revisit 15-20k, so one could sell a portion of XRP now in the bounce to 50k, and rebuy XRP lower when BTC hits 15-20k.
That would be a possible trading strategy.
Then I noticed an interesting fractal pattern early in XRP's history, in the 2013-2014 era, when the coin was still young.
Turns out, XRPBTC back then did something extremely similar. Eerily similar actually, and that although the situation back then was absolutely different.
It did the same doube peak structure, then the fakeout pump, and after that dropping even lower, before then starting to recover and kreeping slowly upwards in XRPBTC for a very long time. Basically it kept creeping up for a year until there was a pretty impressive rally in XRPBTC in the middle of the BTC bearmarket.
This is a rally that many people seem to forget. I don't know what happened back then, even though I was in the market, back then I had other coins and didn't yet understand the utility of XRP.
So XRP can do rallies even in BTC bearmarkets, I assume there must have been some kind of strong bullish news.
The similarity to today is obvious: Depending on when the SEC case is resolved, I assume XRPBTC will be creeping upwards slowly, and then when the case is resolved, BOOM, XRPBTC will see a rally no matter what BTC does. Repeat, no matter if BTC is in a mini bearmarket or if it is at 200k.
I have been following the case, and I think the probability for settlement is extremely high, followed by XRP winning the case. But since the SEC cannot sue other crypto companies if Ripple wins, hence those A-holes won't get funds from penalty fees (yes this is actually the business model of this very cool and absolutely not corrupt UA government agency), they will most likely settle so that they can continue suing. Or Ripple will decide not to settle and crush the SEC, so that the crypto sector is protected in the future from their immoral suing behavior.
Anyways, so depending on WHEN this happens, I assume that we will then see an impressive rally in XRPBTC, and until then a slow creep upwards.
As always, what does this mean for XRPUSD? Well, this of course depends 100% on BTC, so please keep that in mind.
If BTC does the mini bearmarket now, accordinlgy the XRPUSD price will be lower. So for example settlement is reached, XRPBTC starts to rally for 6-8 weeks, peaking at 0.00025-0.0003, and BTC is at only 30k-ish at the peak, we are looking at a top of 7-9 USD.
However, should the case drag out until late 2022, and BTC is then already at 200k, accordingly this means that XRP will surge from a baseline of a few dollars, to around 50 USD.
We must be patient :) But I still believe the reward will be worth it.
Until then, XRP will just follow BTC. So one can trade XRP like BTC.
I think that BTC will revisit 15-20k, so one could sell a portion of XRP now in the bounce to 50k, and rebuy XRP lower when BTC hits 15-20k.
That would be a possible trading strategy.
Comment:
Now that BTC started climbing again, we of course get a move in XRPBTC.
That's how this market works. BTC makes a big move, altcoins follow with delay.
Now it will entirely depend on BTC if this pump is sustained or if it turns out to be a bulltrap.
That's how this market works. BTC makes a big move, altcoins follow with delay.
Now it will entirely depend on BTC if this pump is sustained or if it turns out to be a bulltrap.
But as long as bitcoin doesn't make a move, we shouldn't expect anything interesting to happen with altcoins in general or XRP in particular.
As soon as the BTC bounce will come, which it will, then I will make some updates on possible targets for XRP and what we can expect for the medium to longterm future.