So when trying to understand what the hell XRP is doing, I looked at the chart further back in history.
Then I noticed an interesting fractal pattern early in XRP's history, in the 2013-2014 era, when the coin was still young.
Turns out, XRPBTC back then did something extremely similar. Eerily similar actually, and that although the situation back then was absolutely different.
It did the same doube peak structure, then the fakeout pump, and after that dropping even lower, before then starting to recover and kreeping slowly upwards in XRPBTC for a very long time. Basically it kept creeping up for a year until there was a pretty impressive rally in XRPBTC in the middle of the BTC bearmarket.
This is a rally that many people seem to forget. I don't know what happened back then, even though I was in the market, back then I had other coins and didn't yet understand the utility of XRP. So XRP can do rallies even in BTC bearmarkets, I assume there must have been some kind of strong bullish news.
The similarity to today is obvious: Depending on when the SEC case is resolved, I assume XRPBTC will be creeping upwards slowly, and then when the case is resolved, BOOM, XRPBTC will see a rally no matter what BTC does. Repeat, no matter if BTC is in a mini bearmarket or if it is at 200k.
I have been following the case, and I think the probability for settlement is extremely high, followed by XRP winning the case. But since the SEC cannot sue other crypto companies if Ripple wins, hence those A-holes won't get funds from penalty fees (yes this is actually the business model of this very cool and absolutely not corrupt UA government agency), they will most likely settle so that they can continue suing. Or Ripple will decide not to settle and crush the SEC, so that the crypto sector is protected in the future from their immoral suing behavior.
Anyways, so depending on WHEN this happens, I assume that we will then see an impressive rally in XRPBTC, and until then a slow creep upwards.
As always, what does this mean for XRPUSD? Well, this of course depends 100% on BTC, so please keep that in mind. If BTC does the mini bearmarket now, accordinlgy the XRPUSD price will be lower. So for example settlement is reached, XRPBTC starts to rally for 6-8 weeks, peaking at 0.00025-0.0003, and BTC is at only 30k-ish at the peak, we are looking at a top of 7-9 USD.
However, should the case drag out until late 2022, and BTC is then already at 200k, accordingly this means that XRP will surge from a baseline of a few dollars, to around 50 USD.
We must be patient :) But I still believe the reward will be worth it.
Until then, XRP will just follow BTC. So one can trade XRP like BTC. I think that BTC will revisit 15-20k, so one could sell a portion of XRP now in the bounce to 50k, and rebuy XRP lower when BTC hits 15-20k. That would be a possible trading strategy.
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This idea is still valid.
But as long as bitcoin doesn't make a move, we shouldn't expect anything interesting to happen with altcoins in general or XRP in particular.
As soon as the BTC bounce will come, which it will, then I will make some updates on possible targets for XRP and what we can expect for the medium to longterm future.
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Now that BTC started climbing again, we of course get a move in XRPBTC.
That's how this market works. BTC makes a big move, altcoins follow with delay.
Now it will entirely depend on BTC if this pump is sustained or if it turns out to be a bulltrap.
IMO we can't see any decent price action i.e. 3USD until the SEC case is over. This is due to XRP (generally) not being sold on U.S exchanges as well as the FUD around the SEC case.
Once, the case is cleared and XRP is re-listed, I except price action around 15USD. I eventually think XRP will flip BTC and become the dominant cryptocurrency. My view is that this will happen late 2022 early 2023.
This is an excellent time for anyone to DCA into XRP. Time will tell.
I may be wrong but if we exercise strong will and patience we will be rewarded.
Good luck to everyone and all XRP holders.
SebastianofMoon
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@trill100, Excellent summary Trill100, yes I completely agree. XRP does have the longterm potential to flip BTC, if it will be widely adopted for ODL remittance paymanents across many different currencies around the globe. If that happens and XRP becomes the standard for that, then yes, XRP could even flip BTC.
However, this is some very longterm stuff, and indeed we must first wait until the SEC case is resolved to finally see some good price action.
trill100
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@FlaviusTodorius67, I think also what is important is what settlement between the SEC and Ripple would look like (if the case does settle).
One of the SEC’s missions is to protect investors and as such any penalty/settlement is unlikely to harm the investor.
My view is that the case will settle in the medium term (6 - 9 months). But I also wouldn’t be surprised if the case settles before June 30.
I also think that the case will be resolved in some form still this year.
I could also imagine a settlement at some point in June. The timing would fit nicely and it would be excellent if that would coincide with the bounce in BTC up again to the 50k area.
That might yield a nice xrp rally. But let's see how it will develop. As always, a lot of patience and discipline will be needed.
LiGuoqing
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Many thanks again for your insightful analysis and post!
However, I beg to differ in the point of XRP's flipping BTC. Even though XRP wins the SEC case and more capital FOMO into XRP, it is still very hard to believe XRP can flip the first coin BTC.
SebastianofMoon
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@LiGuoqing, Yes, I also think this scenario is really unlikely. For that to happen, XRP would have to be adopted on a massive scale for all remittance payments and ODL.
MurderHamberder
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$50 USD? lol. Ok. XRP will have a market cap of 5 trillion dollars? HA!
Look, there's no doubt that if the SEC case is won by Ripple Labs, XRP can pump to $3-5, but it ain't going to $50, kid.
cardan6006
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today is July 24th, are there any thoughts or news?
Breezyfree
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How about that SEC case…. Simply need BTC “the king” to go up.
StephMoen
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Binance started in 2017. How did you create this chart in 2013? !!!
IMO we can't see any decent price action i.e. 3USD until the SEC case is over. This is due to XRP (generally) not being sold on U.S exchanges as well as the FUD around the SEC case.
Once, the case is cleared and XRP is re-listed, I except price action around 15USD. I eventually think XRP will flip BTC and become the dominant cryptocurrency. My view is that this will happen late 2022 early 2023.
This is an excellent time for anyone to DCA into XRP. Time will tell.
I may be wrong but if we exercise strong will and patience we will be rewarded.
Good luck to everyone and all XRP holders.