Sorry for the clickbait title but I wanted to draw people's attention to an interesting price formation/correlation happening with XRPBTC Longs.
Although previously, Longs have not resulted in a significant rise in the price of XRP, the behaviour of the price of XRP today to these bitfinex longs is very different when compared to historical price movements. Namely, just the other day when there was a 4% correction in XRPBTC Longs there was a also a 17% rise in the price of XRP, simultaneously.
This suggests that to me that, in the short term, there seems to be a inverse correlation between the XRP Price and XRPBTC Longs. So just to speculate a little I do believe a black swan crash in XRPBTC Longs will result in a significant rise in the price of XRP.
Based on a linear calculation I made I do suspect there will be a 400% increase in the price of XRP at some stage in the immediate future. Note: this is based on a LINEAR calculation, if we factor in exponential price movements based on historical averages we could range anywhere up to 38,000% but I don't want to get to excited just yet.
Let me know what you think!
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I’ve been messing around with the calculator just seeing where a short squeeze in XRPBTC longs would potentially put the price of XRP and I’ve arrived at $11.00.
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XRPBTC Longs are starting to unravel by 1.3% today and XRPUSD is up 2.3%... Coincidence?
I don't know if any of your calculation is correct or if the correlation is correct, but one thing is correct:
The previous ATH of XRPBTCLONGS was in the month of April 2018 together with a 2x in XRPUSD. It looks like fomo, the higher the price went the higher the longs. Maybe primarily stupid money.
This time however XRPBTCLONGS goes to the roof with an unbelievable parabolic ATH since 4th March 2019. But look what XRPUSD did during this timeframe - nothing. Consolidation, sideways market. A small pump lately. That's not fomo. Imo, some entities with a big pile of money are betting that XRP sats against BTC will increase big time. Smart money?
It doesn't necessarily mean a big USD increase. Theoretically it could also mean Bitcoin crashes hard in USD, but XRP doesn't follow.
zmassey
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@NoobOfTheMonth, I agree, any one of those options is a likely a possibility. What I was noting however, is that there is a short term inverse relationship between the recent 15% pump in XRPUSD and the 4% dump in XRPBTC Longs. What happens if there's a 90-95% dump in XRPBTC Longs, say if those contracts gets liquidated straight into XRP? It's anyone's guess really, but it's going to be really interesting.
NoobOfTheMonth
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@zmassey, Well, the correlation isn't necesserily inverse...
GerbenDeZeeuw
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Question, do you reconcile with the XRPBTCshorts??
zmassey
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@GerbenDeZeeuw, yes I believe they are both being used to control and manipulate the price within a certain range. When the two begin to converge, look out.
The previous ATH of XRPBTCLONGS was in the month of April 2018 together with a 2x in XRPUSD. It looks like fomo, the higher the price went the higher the longs. Maybe primarily stupid money.
This time however XRPBTCLONGS goes to the roof with an unbelievable parabolic ATH since 4th March 2019. But look what XRPUSD did during this timeframe - nothing. Consolidation, sideways market. A small pump lately. That's not fomo. Imo, some entities with a big pile of money are betting that XRP sats against BTC will increase big time. Smart money?
It doesn't necessarily mean a big USD increase. Theoretically it could also mean Bitcoin crashes hard in USD, but XRP doesn't follow.