PNUTTY
Long

XRP: RIPPLE 4.0, “Are you ready?”

BITSTAMP:XRPUSD   Ripple / U.S. Dollar
Key Points:
- Finding support at the .382 fib, around $2.70-$2.80
- Seeking to find $3.0 support
- Pattern similar to the price surge to $2.0

Following the surge upward from $3.0, Ripple retraced close to the .618 fib at 2.51 (passing through .5 twice) where .618 almost intersects the 3/1 fin. It then bounced back to $3.07, not quite as strong as the previous surge but following suit none the less.
So we all know history repeats itself right? Based on that tiny assumption:
- Ripple may range for a couple of days till the 7th should it find support at $3.00
- The 8th will show an upward trend followed by a surge past the 2/1 fin to $4.33, and retrace back to $3.69 (using the fan and .618 fib)
- Some investors will decide to take profits at $4.33. Others will hodl on to $5.50 where some serious sh1te will happen.
$5.5 would be a magic milestone for Ripple, though I know there are readers out there who are blowing this one off feeling confident that the market cap of cryptos is far from its top. However if Ripples finds no support at $3.00 then Ripple may retrace back near $2.00.

Again I found myself daydreaming in the land of favorable price movements, keying in my evil plan to take profits at $4.00, only to be overcome by the the realization that I have bought so few of these gems that a price move to 100 wouldn’t make a material difference to my lifestyle.

Currently trading around $2.70-$2.80, pushing for support at the $3.00 line. Go Ripple!
Comment: Last 3h candle has broken through the top of the forming resistance wedge line. needs another convincing 3h wedge to see it find stronger support.

Can go to my "Blow my ripple" post to view. Just press the play button.
Comment: I saw a couple of good postings by other traders explaining why the price is declining to $2.50.

One trader claimed that $2.5 is the more reasonable support line for now due to the indications coming from the ADX as well as the previous all time high.

Another trader pointed out the end of the elliot wave formation upwards, and so now a further reprice can be expected.

If the price finds support at $2.5 / .628 fib then it may support further price rises in the short to medium term. A reprice down should it follow wave theory would mean us Ripplers will wait longer.

Was too aggressive on previous predictions and didn't include indicators for trend strength. This isn't 2017 where wedges followed surges, which were then followed by further wedges and surges and repeat. Next time I shall factor in the impact of previous surges into my price proction.

If you press the play button now, you will see it is now coming close the the old trend line intersecting the .618 fib. See how it plays out for another day.
@PNUTTY Thanks fro the great insights..
I was generally wondering if there is a way to tell probabilities of an event happening or not happening. What I mean is for example we have a situation right now which is anticipating an event of either Ripple falling bellow $2 or surging above $3. Would there a way that we can figure out which one of the two could have a higher chance of happening given the inputs that you mentioned above?

I undertand that it's a tough question to answer, but any ideas could help us figure out things better...
Thanks alot again,
Cheers
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PNUTTY alfamir
@alfamir, Hi Again, Thanks for the question. There sure are people out there in academia and in business who develop models for price determination. There can have several inputs and variables (such as historic prices and others things like interest rates), and of course all types of assumptions.

Is there someone out here with a model for cryptocurrencies? I'm guessing there are, and there are probably some around based on early stage valuation models using the "transfer of value" as one of the key measures. I've come by some articles on valuations of cryptos, some of which have surprising insight and others that just fly right over the top of my head. I've come by some attempts to apply PPP theory to Bitcoin.

Should you find yourself building a model that works, contact me immediately and teach me! :)
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Pleasing play .. . .and it moves above .382 fib and is boucing off .5. Looks like finding support at $2.6 and looking to range about $2.85. Not bad.
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PNUTTY PNUTTY
@PNUTTY, Thanks for the compliment. This worked well for about 1.5 days -> after that, I missed the 5 wave formation and the reprise back down (dammit).
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i bought it with 3$. should i sell it now? thanks pro.
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PNUTTY DinhThietPham
@DinhThietPham, Hi Bro . . .well i wouldnt call myself a pro (more of an enthusiast) but thanks for your compliment. I really appreciate it.

Firstly I apologize if this response is a bit too lengthy, but bear with me.

Whether you should sell now or not really depends on why you got into the trade in the first place, and what your expectations are. Intention is key here.

If you bought at $3 and you were bullish for Ripple (and cryptos) this first half of 2018, then you would hold. You would then have to bear the floating loss as Ripple swings up and down finding new support which is normal in most price surges. This is the case for any investment where you have a target. . . . sometimes you have to bear a floating loss to get to the target profit (yes it's stressful I know). The alternative is to hedge your position with a short if the long position starts going down below an unacceptable price. Be aware that taking a short will stop your loss, but will also realize that loss once you get out of the hedge. Hedging is an useful strategy, but be aware you may also bleed some dosh:
- If your broker charges overnight fees,
- From the bid offer spread, and
- Also if your broker only allows you to take your position for a certain duration, then you have to re-enter the position therefore loosing on the bid offer spread again.

Though if you bought into the position to buy at $3 and take short term profit at a swing high, the swing high of 3.4 has passed and so has the opportunity (for now). To make profit this way, you would require a lot of babysitting unless you set your "take profit" limit accurately and conservatively. Note that the brief $3.4 price was just the swing high before swinging back down . . .this sets the scene for the following daily ranges which Ripple is going through now, though clearly it needs to struggle back up to $3.00.

If you on the other hand got into the trade because of FOMO, well you wouldn't be the first or last. If this is the case you, will have to form a view from here and decide whether to hold, hedge or step out of position and move onto the next investment.

What am I doing? I'm waiting it out for $4. Whether you want to do this is really again on your intention and view and is purely up to you. A $4 target can be viewed as a risky bet, as $4 is a challenge for Ripple due to the market cap arguments. I'm betting on because Ripple is still not a pricey coin compared to other major altcoins. I also believe that 2018 (at least for the first half) should be bullish. But you know this game, anything can happen.

I hope that helps, but just as with many things you can decide yourself since we all have different approaches to trading and views on the market.

Lastly, my estimate is that the next move will be on the 8th or 9th of Jan. It's a couple of days away though in crypto world feels like a couple of years. If it doesn't do much by then, I guess it's the waiting game.
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at what price shall we get in? is the correction over?
Thank you
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PNUTTY Danielkh
@Danielkh, Hi Daniel, Thanks for your question.

Well according to the comment from nzer57 below, charting is no better than flipping a coin.

But that's all I have for now so let's go to another chart. If you see my later posting titled "XRP: Blow My Ripple Baby", press the play button and you will see the price is starting to touch the top line of that forming wedge. Whether this has finished or not will depend on whether it busts through that top line or bounce off it and start heading downwards. That's my two cents. Good luck with it!
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Chartists - predictions that are no better than flipping a coin...how did this one work out.. oh it didn't and by a wide margin. Fact is these markets are so manipulated from one minute to the next the average punter is just along for the ride. Sell the highs and buy the dips ..if you can.
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PNUTTY nzer57
@nzer57, that is a fair comment. But who said I didn't flip a coin? :)
Indeed sell high and buy on the drops.
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