The simple story of this whole market is this: Bitcoin's price is tethered to its 4 year halving events and the whole of the crypto market is tethered to the price of Bitcoin and so every 4 years we hit new ATHs market wide. You can confirm this, just google 'bitcoin halving dates', choose images and find many examples and observe that some number of months post halving the price of BTC hits a new ATH. And the rest of the market follows. One example is the July 2016 BTC halving, XRP didn't respond until March of 2017. That is approximately 8 months later with new ATHs coming months to a whole year after that initial response.
As we all should know in the crypto space, the bitcoin mining reward is cut in half every 4 years. This essentially cuts the newly minted coin supply in half such that less are coming into the market and eventually prices respond to this. In this chart I show two of these halving dates, one of which has yet to occur next May. So the theory is that roughly 8 months after a halving event is when we see the whole of the crypto market BEGIN to respond to this halving event. And then sometime after that is when we see new ATHs.
This is all in response to @MagicPoopCannon 's analysis of XRP but I wish to show that the top line of his ascending channel is wrong because XRP hit an earlier ATH of 0.061 in early December of 2013 (one year after the November 2012 BTC halving). One can confirm this at CoinMarketCap. I linked to his analysis where he shows concern of XRP breaching the bottom of his channel recently with the market wide fall. But if you look at my chart with that XRP December 2013 high accounted for, you'll see that the run up he is (and the rest of us are) expecting is pushed out to early 2021.
But we'll see.
Blessings and good luck...I have to go help Mallory with her homework now ;)
PS - You have to scroll the chart to the left to see the XRP December 2013 high.
This is indeed an alternate idea to the XRP upward I've seen here and there. Hope the ATH takes place next year, but if it's 8 months later I can even buy more XRP at discount prices. So in any case, I'm going to BTFDs ;-)
alexkeaton
⋅
@Gaengphed, my thoughts exactly. i'm buying this dip but hoping i'm wrong and new ATHs come sooner.
MarloStanfield
⋅
Nice TA, friend. And good catch on the trendline ;-)
Adamnary
⋅
nice
silverfox6969
⋅
Nice
MfekaLC
⋅
what date does this graph speculate it to go parabalic?
alexkeaton
⋅
@MfekaLC, i am not sure now especially with the SEC case. But my above assumes the next market high for all coins is late 2021/early 2022 range. I *hope* this further prices suppression makes XRP bounce big time to catch up with the rest of the market (arbitrage).
ELFXgroup
⋅
@alexkeaton I like this analyze, you didn't update anything for a long time, what do you think how xrp is moving?
alexkeaton
⋅
@ELFXgroup, In looking at the BTCUSD and XRPUSD histories on charts.cointrader.pro (CoinMarketCap data), there is no indication that we aren't still on track. I am comparing the bull run that ended in the December 2017 ATHs (all time highs) of the crypto market. I don't expect BTC to reach its previous ATH until March 2021 (approximately 20K). Then a new ATH to come December 2021. And I expect XRP to do what it has done which is to remain relatively flat and then explode. XRP should start to take off shortly after BTC hits its previous ATH. XRP is kind of a late bloomer :). If these things don't happen then I'll reconsider where this market is going.
This is all just comparing the historic movement of the market. So we'll see. We are investing in protocols to move money on the internet so that is a solid fundamental that humanity should adopt. Now will the charts reflect that? I hope so.
ELFXgroup
⋅
@alexkeaton, Thanks man, I really appreciate your time spent to make this analyze and to provide all of those information.