Once again I am looking at the bigger picture in Ripple. Elliot waves are clear cut, even the ABC seems to have formed quite nicely on this larger timeframe. I am using log scale for this trendline analysis as well as to better count this super cycle. Ripple is currently trading sideways if this continues then it will test the red trendline within 2 weeks. If this trendline is broken we risk this C wave becoming drawn out and we will likely have to consider longer term bearish scenarios.
A break of the trendline will likely lead to a drop to 71 cents. If this fails then a fast drop to 56 cents is likely as there is no support between these levels. My worst case scenario is a drop to 26 cents (back where we started), this a low probability scenario but I think it is on the table if BTC does go to 6k or lower.
In the shorter term we need to see ripple rallying soon to consider the total correction over. As it stands this count looks quite probable to me and I doubt we will get a truncated C wave as I have drawn in the chart e as we are still in a bear market. So i caution traders going long to be careful as this correction does not look finished quite yet.
Comments and feedback are appreciated and like and follow for updates. Will do a shorter term analysis after some sleep :)
Trade active
⋅
Trendline broken if BTC goes down more double bottom is very much in play.
Trade active
⋅
Approaching buy zone, should occur when BTC goes to 7.2k.
Trade active
⋅
This is easy, enjoy your profits. Additional targets: 0.71 0.81 1.00
Trade active
⋅
Hey guys with the market looking weak I am considering the 0.26-0.30 as a decent probability. Let's see if we can make some more bounce profits.
Do you think that if BTC goes to $4500, XRP will go to 0.27. It’s a big drop.
HyperionAllied
⋅
@JuanAndres, Double bottom is the most likely scenario. If that support is broken all fibs and visible supports are exhausted with 0.27 being the nearest one. However I think we will have to see BTC go down to 3k-4.5k for this scenario to be in play at all.
@DOUGTON, Do you mean wave 4 does not retrace enough? If you are going to try and correct me atleast do so with some clarity. I have not broken any rules so the count is not wrong. Elliot waves are subjective, saying a count is wrong is stupid unless a rule is violated. While this count may not be your most probable it does not mean its wrong.
DOUGTON
⋅
@HyperionAllied, yes you are right. sorry for my words. in fact waves are indeed subjective. the way i see it your 1-3 is a full 1-5. and your 1-4 is a big 1-2 where your 5 will be my 3 or maybe half 3.
HyperionAllied
⋅
@DOUGTON, hmmm, I see what you mean, also probable, regardless of count I think ripple is likely to correct.