This move down after the upward breakout of the bullish correction triangle was completely unexpected and has invalidated my earlier Elliott Wave count since it made a new low below the previous Wave 4. It has also broken the established channel.
There are a few possible scenarios:
1. The last high is the top of Wave 3 and this pullback is Wave 4 2. The last Wave 3 count was actually Wave 5 and this is an ABC correction - This would make Wave 1 super flat and its hard for me to see an impulse wave, in relation to all other waves, as a wave that only moved 0.05 from 4/6 to 4/8 and would make Wave 2 a 4.236 fib extension of Wave 1. 3. Irrational market
It would appear XRP is leading the market direction now, not BTC. While XRP was taking a dive, BTC was making new highs, but eventually turned around and also lost about 10%.
Do I think we lost the bullish trend we established over the last few weeks? Nope. Not at all.
If I hadnt already bought here (the green buy area I marked earlier) I would be buying here again. We could see 0.77, the HA Pivot... but with the end of the month drawing near I find that the market starts to react to next months Pivot points.
I will redraw my counts as soon as I have more data to work with.
Follow me on Twitter @ExsiliumI for additional analysis updates and important news related to Ripple.
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Price did hit 0.77 as I suspected and ate up the $1 million buy order that has been on Bitstamp for the last couple weeks. It has since rebounded back past 0.80 which may indicate a bottom has been established where expected.
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Technically the move to 0.96 could be Wave 5 which would put us in an ABC correction, just seems weird for Wave 5 to be 0.5 fib of Wave 3.
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I have updated my Wave count in a new published Idea.
Might be worth following me here and on my Twitter @ExsiliumI so you can get up to date analysis, useful news and near real-time price action updates.
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Word of warning here -
There is the beginnings of a bearish descending triangle forming. If it breaks down were looking at 0.685 as a target.
That said, I continue to see long open interest building and this would have to turn down before a break of the 0.76-77 level was broken.
While I dont see this as likely, I would be remiss if I did not inform those of you kind enough to consider my analysis that the possibility of further down movement was possible.
I wonder if XRP is becoming the next LTC. It seems every coin and their brother except XRP had a 5th wave. I agree it appeared that XRP did start diving 1st or dove harder than others but it could be pure coincidence. It did stall hard at the $0.95 mark and perhaps people were getting scared as BTC was approaching 10K that BTC would take over the ruin the party as it has done in the past.
Exsilium
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@mikehill85, Its entirely possible with both XRP and BTC reaching psychological levels, $1 and 10k respectively. I did re-tweet something I found earlier today that showed a giant spike down to sub 0.50 on Bitfinex in a 1 minute period. This whole thing seems like whales positioning themselves for the next major drive up. Someone dumped MILLIONS to trigger a ton of stop losses, then turned around and bought it back up.
mikehill85
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@Exsilium, Interesting. I was wondering what caused that weird spike down. Thanks for the info. However, wouldn't this simply cause a spike down on that exchange alone?
Exsilium
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@mikehill85, thats a perfectly valid question, but in my experience, the exchanges are sensitive to major movements in other exchanges. Some of the algo's Ive written in fact watch for indicators in exchanges like Bitfinex even though I trade exclusively now (my BFX account got frozen in Novemember because im a US citizen) in Bitstamp. I can remember giant spikes in Bitfinex back in 2014/2015... that exchange is very vulnerable to those kind of movements.
felipereyb
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Would you consider maybe Bitcoin Cash is leading the tendency now?
Exsilium
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@felipereyb, I honestly done know enough about Bitcoin Cash to give any real opinion. Im assuming you think it might be the case that Bitcoin Cash is leading the market, and if so, why?
@Exsilium, I don't know much about it either, but BCH started dropping hours earlier, before any other crypto. Also considering it had the major % gains in the past 15 days.