Hi, it's finally time again for an XRP analysis. As I correctly pointed out back in early 2019, we won't see any XRP growth in that year. While many posters kept drawing gigantic arrows towards new heights for XRP, I was calling for an extremely boring year, with a long period of stability, where we would see XRP bouncing between 0.1 and 0.5 USD. These are all just fluctuations. While overly pessimistic people immediately pronounce the death of XRP only because it hits below 20 cents, we can see that XRP always is doing these long periods of "stability". Stability in the sense of a crypto means only fluctuating by a factor of 3-5 lol.
What is extremely important, is that the monthly bband is getting very narrow, and at the same time the monthly stoch RSI has been extremely oversold since 2 years now ! It is only a matter of time when XRP will start rising. Now if we look at the past peaks, we see that in late 2013, XRP hit 5 cents ATH, the data is from coinmarketcap. The next big peak was in late 2017 at 3.5 USD, so almost x100. Another x100 is unlikely, but connecting the two peaks would yield a target of 50 USD for the coming big XRP rally.
XRP will only start pumping when BTC has reached the old ATH at 20k. Very unlikely that it will start before that. I see again two pumps happening as in 2017, culminating in the target of 50 USD which we'll hit sometime in 2021, when BTC reaches its ATH, or during that time plusminus a few weeks.
This is my current view on XRP, and it didn't change in one whole year, see here as proof:
By the way, I also correctly called the second XRP rally in early 2018, which for me personally was a life-changing event:
Hodling XRP is really hard and requires a brutal amount of patience and discipline. But in the end, XRP hodlers normally are rewarded the most. Patience and discipline my friends :)
Comment
⋅
It seems that XRPBTC is starting to rise a bit. But we shouldn't get our hopes up too high already, because if we draw the triangle more pessimistically, it is still inside.
I see two possible paths, should we really break resistance now:
A move to the upper monthly bband then fall, then the big pump. Or this here being a smaller pump, then fall, then the big pump.
In both cases I expect the big pump towards the end of the year. This is my current view.
I agree and really like this analysis. I can appreciate a well thought out XRP analysis when most of what you see is either sarcastic troll posts or people that just copy and paste fractals. I'm honestly surprised you don't have more trolls commenting on this though lol. One thing that seems a little weird to me is the rather slow grind upward you have starting around April/May. When XRP broke out in Mar '17, it was pretty much a straight shot up for 3 months. What do you think are the chances of that as opposed to the slow initial grind up you have drawn?
Again, great analysis.
SebastianofMoon
⋅
@ScootingScoot, Hi ScootingScoot, first of all thanks for the friendly comment :) Indeed, I'm also quite surprised how civilized people on tradingview can sometimes be and it's good to see that there are also a lot of intelligent people here :)
As for XRP, I have been watching this beast since 2013, it really is a very fascinating coin. Even though I am not entirely a fan of a centralized system, I have to say that they do a lot to push crypto adoption, and that is always a good thing.
XRP is 95% of the time an extremely stable and thus boring coin. Most of the time it has long plateaus of stability, where it doesn't do much. But as we can see when we draw the XRPBTC and XRPUSD charts, it does giant moves when BTC has rallies. Only once in 2015 did XRP do a strong move without BTC doing a lot, I see that as an exception.
We know when these moves happen when XRPBTC's gigantic wedges come to a close. Coincidentally, these are the exact same times when XRPUSD has monthly or weekly bbands getting really narrow and being oversold for very long periods of time.
I see the chances of strong pumps like in 2017 and 2013 or 2015 very high for 2020 and/or 2021, depending on when BTC will reach 20k and make new ATHs.
XRP will very likely shoot up again and pump like crazy in a short timeframe of the order of 1-2 months, then do nothing again. Then maybe a second pump where the same happens.
A slow grind upwards I see as improbable, because the altcoin market is highly manipulated by whales who know how to play this game :) Time and time again they initiate the big altcoin pumps with huge buys, a phenomenon which I have seen since I started with crypto over 6 years ago.
I hope that helps :) Thanks again and have a great day :)
ScootingScoot
⋅
@FlaviusTodorius67, we're on the same page. Your targets are also realistic imo. I'm very excited to see what happens in the coming months! Thanks for taking the time to reply!
SebastianofMoon
⋅
@ScootingScoot, Thanks a lot and it will be indeed very interesting to see what will happen :) You're welcome, it's nice talking to some intelligent people here.
K-Pierro
⋅
@FlaviusTodorius67, Thanks for posting and updating your long term XRP and BTC charts, your work is very appreciated !
I couldn’t agree more with the fact that BTC successfully retaking its 2017 ATH and starting to print new ones will be decisive in allowing XRP to start its next bull cycle.
I’d like to get your opinion on some similarities visible in between the XRP retrace pump of December 2014 to $0.028 (the unusual 2015 strong move that you mention in your comment) and the retrace pump of September 2018 when XRP reached $0.78 in a few days.
I find these two moves very interesting as they share common timing in both cycles :
- They both represent a retrace of the decline from previous ATH, that stands out against other moves, roughly a 36% retrace in 2014, (using a Dec 2013 ATH of $0.08 on Bitstamp), and roughly an 18% retrace in 2018.
- They both happened, respectively, 12 months and 10 month after the XRP ATH.
- They both happened, respectively, 1 month and 3 months before BTC would print its low for the cycle (Jan 14 2015 and Dec 13 2018).
- They both happened, respectively, 12 months and 15 months before XRP would print its next low for the cycle (Dec 01 2015 and Dec 18 2019, assuming no further lows in 2020).
- They both happened, respectively, 18 months and 19 months before BTC would see its next halving event (July 09 2016 and May 12 2020).
- In both cases BTC was quiet while XRP was on the move.
I find it intersting how similar these two XRP bear markets are shaping up to be, and how closely they are tied to BTC’s behaviors.
SebastianofMoon
⋅
@K-Pierro, Hi K-Pierro, thanks a lot for your interesting and insightful comment, highly appreciated :) And you're welcome for the BTC and XRP analyses, I'm having quite a lot of fun doing them, as crypto has become kind of an obsessive hobby since 2013, hehe!
And again, as in your other post, your observations are absolutely correct.
XRP has a very systematic behavior, and is closely tied to BTC's movements. Your observation on the two pumps of 2014 and 2018, respectively are excellent. Yes, XRP's big moves normally need BTC to enter a bull cycle. The 2015 pump, I can't remember the reason any more, maybe was to some extremely bullish news.
So therefore, we can expect the next very big pump to begin around March- May (at the latest) this year, according to this cycle behavior.
Besides BTC being bullish and probably touching the old ATH at some point this year, XRP is doing TWO giant bullish wedges. One in XRPBTC which is already now ongoing since 2 years, and a not so obvious one in XRPUSD. Double bull ! And both end around the March-May timescale. So I assume we'll see some highly fascinating pumps then, akin to the first big one in Marc-May 2017, so exactly 3 years after this pump.
Highly interesting times. Thanks again for your excellent observation and have a nice day :)
K-Pierro
⋅
@FlaviusTodorius67, Thanks for taking the time to post detailed responses !
I’m very curious as to why you see a large pump possible for XRP as soon as spring 2020. Looking at previous cycles, it seems like XRP was never “allowed” to start moving significantly before BTC successfully passed the previous ATH (this seems to hold true for ETH and LTC also). Looking at 2017, XRP waited 2 months after the January ATH break before starting to move. Even looking as far back as spring 2013, XRP started pumping up from the $0.001 zone also 2 months after BTC retook the previous cycle ATH at $32 (I’ll admit that this data could be a bit less relevant as XRP was so young at the time).
You mention the giant bullish wedge currently coming to a close on the XRPBTC chart. Looking at the previous cycle, it seems like XRPBTC completed the wedge pattern in Dec 2015, but then proceeded to stay quietly around the low for a full 16 months, until Mar 2017.
Why do you see the pattern resolving so much quicker this time around ? I definitely wouldn’t mind XRP pumping that early but that would represent a significant shift in “usual behavior” !
SebastianofMoon
⋅
@K-Pierro, Hi K-Pierro, you make some excellent observations :) And of course you're welcome for the detailed responses. I like taking the time to converse with intelligent people here, who have an understanding of coin-dynamics, which you clearly have.
So, why do I think that XRP will behave a bit differently this time? Because of BTC. I think BTC will reach ATH at some time until May this year, surprising many in a quite aggressive move. The btc halving is in may after all.
In 2017, after BTC hit the old ATH, that's when the XRP pump started, so I think because we are a bit earlier in this cycle due to BTC wanting to get to ATH earlier, XRP will also be earlier.
Of course, this whole scenario in forfeit, should I be wrong and BTC not make it to the old ATH at 20k until May.
Then the XRP pump will of course accordingly also wait for BTC to reach 20k :)
I hope this clarifies my line of thinking. Thanks for your amazing comment, I'm really glad to see that there are actually quite a few nice people here on tradingview :)
K-Pierro
⋅
@FlaviusTodorius67, Thank you very much for the insight.
It would be fascinating to see BTC so aggressively speed up the “take back old ATH” part of the cycle, and see XRP respond accordingly. Spring 2020 might get very interesting !
Again, great analysis.