XRP — Breakout Playbook (Weekly Context + 2-Day Execution, With Divergences & Wave Map)
1) Market position (where price sits now)
Price is compressing beneath a descending trendline and just under a horizontal range ceiling after a strong upside impulse.
The prior pullback held inside the mapped support box (approx. 2.85–2.64 on the chart), keeping the higher-timeframe up-leg viable.
2) Momentum state & divergences
Now (2-Day): Regular bullish divergence printed into the box: price made an equal/lower low while the MACD histogram made a higher low. This signals seller fatigue into support and raises the odds that a valid break can sustain if participation appears.
Anticipated (near resistance): Regular bearish divergence risk is elevated into 4.46–4.60 and again near 5.05. Expect momentum to lag if the move matures; divergence there often precedes a reaction.
On the throwback: a successful retest frequently forms hidden bullish divergence (price makes a higher low while momentum makes a lower low). That pattern supports the “acceleration” phase.
3) Wave roadmap (now → next)
Primary count on the breakout path
The current advance is mapped as micro A–B–C, with C ≈ A (1:1) clustering in the 4.46–4.60 band; a higher-hierarchy objective resides around 5.05.
After the first clean break, the standard path is: Wave 1 up through the ceiling → Wave 2 throwback to retest the broken trendline/ceiling → Wave 3 extension targeting 4.46–4.60, with potential continuation toward 5.05 if momentum holds.
What qualifies the Wave-2 retest
Pullback respects the former cap (trendline/ceiling acts as support).
The reaction back up shows volume expansion and improving momentum.
The Wave-2 low stays above the Wave-1 origin (structure intact).
4) Breakout qualification (must see both)
Close through the cap and range high on the 2-Day.
Participation: volume clearly above recent average on the break.
→ After that, a weekly close that holds above the level promotes the move from tactical to structural.
5) Path after confirmation (scenarios)
Base scenario — continuation with throwback
Break → throwback to the breakout line (common) → hold → acceleration.
Wave-3 behavior: broad bars, rising participation, momentum improving.
Targets by confluence on the chart:
4.46–4.60 (equality/congestion band) = first reaction zone.
~5.05 = higher decision area; expect a larger battle there.
Alternate bullish — deeper retest first
If the breakout wicks and fails to stick on the first attempt, a deeper retest into the upper half of the support box can still resolve higher, provided weekly structure remains intact and momentum rebuilds.
Bearish/failed break
Pop above resistance without volume, followed by a close back inside the range = false breakout risk; immediate de-risk and await a fresh setup.
A new closing low below ~2.64 (box floor) breaks the structure of the current weekly idea.
6) Risk, invalidation, and management
Tactical invalidation (post-break): a 2-Day close back under the reclaimed level on rising volume.
Structural invalidation: weekly close back inside the prior range after confirmation, or loss of the most recent weekly higher low.
Stop logic: trail beneath successive 2-Day swing lows during the advance; after weekly confirmation, management can widen to weekly swings to respect higher-TF trend.
Profit handling: expect churn and potential bearish divergence at 4.46–4.60; partials are reasonable there. If momentum/volume remain constructive, leave a runner toward ~5.05.
7) Execution checklist (pin next to the chart)
2-Day close above the descending cap and the horizontal ceiling ✅
Volume expansion on the breakout bar(s) ✅
Weekly close holds above the break ✅
Throwback: test of former cap; holds as support ✅
Wave-3 tells after the retest: broader candles, improving momentum, higher participation ✅
Zones to manage: 4.46–4.60 (reaction/divergence risk), then ~5.05 (bigger decision).
Failure tells: quick close back in range, retest breaks down, or fresh weekly lower low → stand down.
1) Market position (where price sits now)
Price is compressing beneath a descending trendline and just under a horizontal range ceiling after a strong upside impulse.
The prior pullback held inside the mapped support box (approx. 2.85–2.64 on the chart), keeping the higher-timeframe up-leg viable.
2) Momentum state & divergences
Now (2-Day): Regular bullish divergence printed into the box: price made an equal/lower low while the MACD histogram made a higher low. This signals seller fatigue into support and raises the odds that a valid break can sustain if participation appears.
Anticipated (near resistance): Regular bearish divergence risk is elevated into 4.46–4.60 and again near 5.05. Expect momentum to lag if the move matures; divergence there often precedes a reaction.
On the throwback: a successful retest frequently forms hidden bullish divergence (price makes a higher low while momentum makes a lower low). That pattern supports the “acceleration” phase.
3) Wave roadmap (now → next)
Primary count on the breakout path
The current advance is mapped as micro A–B–C, with C ≈ A (1:1) clustering in the 4.46–4.60 band; a higher-hierarchy objective resides around 5.05.
After the first clean break, the standard path is: Wave 1 up through the ceiling → Wave 2 throwback to retest the broken trendline/ceiling → Wave 3 extension targeting 4.46–4.60, with potential continuation toward 5.05 if momentum holds.
What qualifies the Wave-2 retest
Pullback respects the former cap (trendline/ceiling acts as support).
The reaction back up shows volume expansion and improving momentum.
The Wave-2 low stays above the Wave-1 origin (structure intact).
4) Breakout qualification (must see both)
Close through the cap and range high on the 2-Day.
Participation: volume clearly above recent average on the break.
→ After that, a weekly close that holds above the level promotes the move from tactical to structural.
5) Path after confirmation (scenarios)
Base scenario — continuation with throwback
Break → throwback to the breakout line (common) → hold → acceleration.
Wave-3 behavior: broad bars, rising participation, momentum improving.
Targets by confluence on the chart:
4.46–4.60 (equality/congestion band) = first reaction zone.
~5.05 = higher decision area; expect a larger battle there.
Alternate bullish — deeper retest first
If the breakout wicks and fails to stick on the first attempt, a deeper retest into the upper half of the support box can still resolve higher, provided weekly structure remains intact and momentum rebuilds.
Bearish/failed break
Pop above resistance without volume, followed by a close back inside the range = false breakout risk; immediate de-risk and await a fresh setup.
A new closing low below ~2.64 (box floor) breaks the structure of the current weekly idea.
6) Risk, invalidation, and management
Tactical invalidation (post-break): a 2-Day close back under the reclaimed level on rising volume.
Structural invalidation: weekly close back inside the prior range after confirmation, or loss of the most recent weekly higher low.
Stop logic: trail beneath successive 2-Day swing lows during the advance; after weekly confirmation, management can widen to weekly swings to respect higher-TF trend.
Profit handling: expect churn and potential bearish divergence at 4.46–4.60; partials are reasonable there. If momentum/volume remain constructive, leave a runner toward ~5.05.
7) Execution checklist (pin next to the chart)
2-Day close above the descending cap and the horizontal ceiling ✅
Volume expansion on the breakout bar(s) ✅
Weekly close holds above the break ✅
Throwback: test of former cap; holds as support ✅
Wave-3 tells after the retest: broader candles, improving momentum, higher participation ✅
Zones to manage: 4.46–4.60 (reaction/divergence risk), then ~5.05 (bigger decision).
Failure tells: quick close back in range, retest breaks down, or fresh weekly lower low → stand down.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.