pugilist_vc
Short

XRP Short - 2/12/2018

BITSTAMP:XRPUSD   Ripple / U.S. Dollar
2/12/18 (7:17pm EST):
Short Entry (1.04) Target (0.50) Stop loss (1.25) <Possible bear trap>

Logic :
XRP like all cryptos are in a downtrend, consistently fallen and bounce off key support and fib levels after brief capitulation of about a week or so. Afterward, the price action rolls over and the volume increases to the downside until it reaches the next support or fib level.

Typically XRP falls ~70% from its previous bounce peak and then jumps ~100% before losing ~70% again and retesting lower support levels (which typically coincide with previous support or fib levels). Right now, that support and fall level is around $0.37. I put the cover at 0.50 because I expect frantic bids entering the market because at that level, there is very little support remaining which means a retest of the 0.20-0.25 levels of late 2017 are likely. I want to be out of the position before that dynamic unfolds.

We'll reassess and potentially look to play the bounce on the upside given XRP usually recaptures ~100% of it's previous high; especially if frantic bids enter the market to buoy the price. Obviously, this historicism of trading works until it doesn't, so I will keep a close eye on when this trend reverses and adjust my expectations and strategy accordingly.
Comment: (2/21/2018): my short has been working well in XRP. I'm up ~13% so far. I narrowed my take profit to $0.78 from the original $0.50 since the market dynamics/bias seem to have changed for the moment.
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