The 2018 low of 0.459 was breached and rebounded... twice, over the last 16 hours. The last rebound was 0.04 and is a bullish engulfing bar, altogether a very strong bullish signal IMHO.
This would mark the end of Minor Wave 5 and would now start the correction waves. Price has to go above Minor Wave 4 at 0.496 to indicate a potential new bullish impulse series, and I fully expect this to happen today.
I see what is the completion of Intermediate Wave 5 (yellow). If this hold true we can see 0.54066 (0.382 of yellow impulse wave) in a corrective wave scenario, with 0.57164 (0.50 fib) possible, but with a breach above signaling new bullish Intermediate impulse wave.
Right now (P+S1)/2 is sitting right above Intermediate Wave 4 and would normally provide resistance, but were approaching the end of the month and it becomes less relevant the closer we get.
To be clear, and at great risk to my reputation, I am calling a reversal here.
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As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice.
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You may notice some of my previous chart posts are gone. That is because I had some of my previous posts hidden by moderators as they had links to my twitter and patreon accounts. I guess doing that is limited to the highest tier subscription account.
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Price should break above 0.496, Minor Wave 4, very soon, probably within the next 2-3 hours. I will be publishing a new chart once that is triggered.
@InvestingScope, I dont see it yet. While it missed my bullish trigger by 0.0015 there has been no price movement to indicate sellers out-weighing the bulls at this point. Besides, your channel you drew was based on 3 sequential bars and from what I can tell, you used the same shape as the previous channel.
That said, there could be a retest of the low, its not unexpected, but I dont see any price movement at this point in time to indicate its going to happen near-term.
Exsilium
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@Exsilium, I also want to add that there has been no corrective wave of the completed intermediate impulse wave series down. At most we could plot a tiny AB .. but that still leaves out the C, and the size and structure might be OK for the minor wave correction, but doesnt work for the intermediate wave correction.
Movali123
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You still calling for a reversal? This has been ongoing since I commented at 0.65! Look at my update and relax, let the dip down on the daily come down to the fib levels and then yes we’ll reverse. Max BTC target is 6455 before the next dump. XRP possibly 0.52 but might not even make it there yet.
Exsilium
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@Movali123, Yes, for the moment I am still bullish. While the price got to within 0.0015 of my bullish trigger point, it ended up stalling and has been pretty flat for the last 20 hours. You say the "...fib levels" but dont specify which, or why. I also disagree with many (I get flamed for this often) about using BTC to analyze XRP. I simply do not care what BTC is doing. Yes, BTC can influence the price of XRP, but on the other hand I have seen BTC drop and XRP not follow. Just seems like a futile exercise.
Movali123
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@Exsilium, you still bullish and can we accept the analysis youve done on XRP over the last few posts and always got declined. Well continue downwards so you should relax and let it happen, for sure the bullish moment is not far away but think youre not looking at the market sentiment and the overall BTC effect. As always appreciate the post and a fair response but well be forming new lows very soon.
Exsilium
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@Movali123, as i noted in todays analysis, a break below 0.448 would be a sell signal, and we just broke below it, so i would agree with your recent comment. That said, there is still the matter of Elliot Wave theory that suggests a correction wave needs to happen at the higher degree level which has not happened. The Minor degree correction wave is now complete with this Triangle/Pennant, but the recent low was the culmination of more than one series of impulse waves.
Thanks for the update Ex, got in at .46300 monthly pivot...quite happy, now bye bye Bears....fingers crossed...;)
Exsilium
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@braddles69, even if it goes down, you still got in at a great price for the longer term thing. We still got enough time to hit 10$ this year, a nice return either way.