When the AVWAP Goes Flat, the Range Is About to Break (XRP)

Aug 28

XRP went from 1.00 to 1.70 in three sessions. It has spent the six since going nowhere.

That's not indecision. That's the market building value at a price it had never traded before.

Where structure sits:
Value area 1.335 -1.556. POC at 1.477. Swing AVWAP at 1.392. Price 1.4169, +1.76% above the anchor.

Two levels do all the work here.

The POC at 1.477 is where this entire range is organised the price both sides have agreed on most since the expansion. The prior-day high sits on the same level. Price has been turned away from it on the 25th, the 26th, and again today. Sellers aren't heavy up there. Buyers simply aren't paying above consensus yet.

The AVWAP at 1.392 is the cost basis of everyone who bought the 19–22 August move. It rose for a week. It has now gone flat and the prior-day low is sitting on it. A flattening anchored VWAP means the average buyer's entry has finally caught up to price. There's no cushion left in that position.

Now look at the compression. Highs: 1.556 → 1.51 → 1.477. Lows: 1.335 → 1.36 → 1.392. Both edges folding into the anchor. Ranges that tighten into cost basis resolve they don't drift.

What I'm watching:

Acceptance above 1.477 two 4H closes, not a wick, puts 1.556 VAH back in play, and the profile thins quickly above it toward the 1.70 spike.

Loss of 1.392 puts price below institutional cost basis for the first time since the launch. Below 1.335 the profile is hollow down to ~1.30. Thin volume cuts both ways: fast up, faster down.

Constructive while price holds the anchor. Not constructive the moment it doesn't.

Sep 3

Trade active

I had a lot of questions to what way it will break, which I off course didn't have any idea... But I guess XRP gave the answer itself. A massive break of avwap with volume behind. The line in the sand is now the avwap, so any long should have that as a defined SL.

Sep 7

Note

Still hovering above Avwap on the 4H, today on light volume. The Anchor is the line in the sand, where I will re asses the short term thesis. So far nothing has changed.