The following analysis isn't going to be particularly helpful. Basically, from my point of view, 2+2 is no longer 4. What I can tell you is this; buy. Why? Because I truly believe in XRP and Ripple as a whole. There is some major traction in users of Ripple products and that will inherently increase the value of XRP. Let me put it another way, this next paycheck.. Im going to add another $4000-$5000 to my XRP holdings. I see no reliable support levels to target for entry below here, and I still think $10 is plausible by end of year. So, that $5000 for instance, at the current 0.42639, would be worth $117,263 at $10. So Im not upset that the price went down from a real-money point of view, Im upset because all the analysis in the world can be wrong and Im not fond of being wrong.
Ive been watching other guys who post XRP analysis and some have been yellowing for down down down.. but with no reason why, other than following the current trend. I am not trying to call the current trend, thats not rocket science; a 5 year old could tell you what the trend is. I am trying to identify waves, tops and bottoms, so I (and you) can get in and out sooner and maximize XRP holdings.
We have been wanting XRP to diverge from BTC for a long time... and it did last night. While XRP is currently down 3.87%, BTC is up 0.28%. Go figure. Yesterday I did a whole write-up about Pennants and Triangles. Over the last night the Pennant I plotted broke down, as well as the Sell Signal I plotted. Normally a Pennant exit will follow the length of the flagpole. In this case, that would target 0.43.
I was watching LOI climb steadily last night, but it appears as soon as I went to bed it reversed with about 3 million flowing out XRP on Bitfinex. The part about this data that doesnt quite make sense to me is that there is about 10 million more in XRP now than there was back in April when we were at 0.45. I am trying to correlate this to price action but have yet to solve that puzzle.
Below here we have the Monthly (P1+P2)/2 Pivot Point at 0.388055. Next months estimated Pivot Points have changed with the new low. Relevant to the current level we have PP at 0.52, (P+S1)/2 at 0.43, and S1 at 0.34. HA relevant PP is at 0.58, HA(P+S1)/2 at 0.48 and HAS1 at 0.39.
Potential, but very weak trend-lines from December are around 0.32-0.33. I see a lot of guys trying to use this, but the data is old and irrelevant to the current price action than it was then.
The top of the run up in Q2 of 2017 was at 0.39887. I point this out as previous resistance can become support. There is a couple more tops at 0.32 and 0.33. Again, this is super old data, but we are in no-mans land now and trying to find support here is tricky.
This break lower has violated various Elliot Wave rules as currently plotted. I am going to find a way where this fits into EW theory.
Daily Fisher is now at the same level that preceded the rise from 0.45 to 0.96, as well as the rise from 0.54 to 0.70. So, if your still HODLing, continue to do so. Selling here would just be stupid.
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As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice. I can be, and have been, completely wrong in my analysis. I am not trying to identify a trend; a 5 year old can do that. I am trying to maximize XRP holdings by catching the waves as soon as possible. So, while anyone that identifies a trend can be right 100% of the time, finding those tops and bottoms is difficult and prone to error, but by and large I can increase my XRP holdings steadily.
XRP to reach $10 is impossible. At that price it would be more valuable than all other coin together and that is simply impossible. Sorry to dissapoint you mate...
christiankat
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@jovbranko, impossible is a strong word.... I think it is always good to watch your pairs.. xrpbtc, ethbtc, etc...... it depends on the relation they have before one or the other or a lot of alts have ignition at almost the same time ;-)
Exsilium
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@jovbranko, ive been trading crypto since december 2013... what ive learned is nothing is impossible. yes, it would take bitcoin jumping up again for xrp to find a pair, but i watched it go from 9k to 20k in 3 months so its entirely possible.
@RensBruin, Not for xRapid (which uses XRP, xCurrent doesn't)
RensBruin
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@essexboyracer, Read the whole article my friend. Im not referring to the partnership in the article. Im referring to the the appeal that has been made on the ban that will stops commercial banks and other registered financial institutions, from dealing with cryptocurrency exchanges and other activities including individual deposits of fiat to exchanges. The ruling on the 3rd of July will be a monumental one not only for India but for the entire world as such cases will set precedence for the regulatory decisions in other countries across the globe.
Jessica_H
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@RensBruin, Hilarious!!!!! Are you seriously going to post an article that relates to something being ruled on in India? India's financial industry is backwards at best. The Indian government still can't figure out how to build a proper sewage system let alone regulate financial industries.
Listen up just incase you don't get it. Ripple and the XRP coin is being used and in full effect right now across many Japanese and Korean banks. Last time I check Japan and Korea were in the top 10 economies in the world. Ripple is not liked by the minority in the crypto space because well it actually has a use case and does something. Ripple is proven, it works. It's not some pie in the sky BS coin with white papers that actually DON'T SOLVE ANY PROBLEMS!!!!
XRP is a solution and a excellent one at solving the slow antiquated and expensive SWIFT monopoly system (run by a small but large handful of American banks) of transferring trillions of dollars a day across the globe. Ripple does it faster, cheaper and more securely. No longer will the likes of JP or BoA be making money with money on bank transfers that isn't there whilst they hold it and pretend it is being processed as they play the forex markets.
Who will benefit? Small to medium sized banks across the globe of which there are many more of than the handful of rich American banks.
In order for XRP to fully realise it's potential and replace the SWIFT system each XRP coin has to have a minimum value of $250 USD in todays value and that needs to grow as the financial markets grow to cater for the trillions of dollars XRP needs to carry in transfers.
XRP just won't over take ETH, but also BTC in market cap. Yes it will and despite what idiots think it is it's high supply that will allow it to do so.
BTC is like digital gold. Just look at what is happening to the price of gold now. BTC has massive limitations. Those limitations will be it's downfall.
Thing is crypto is a tiny space right now made up of crazy idealists, fruit-loops and just cowboy traders making a tonne of money shorting BTC and bleeding it dry before moving on to the next thing. Idealist don't know how to monetise and certainly don't know how to run a business or how business works. That is why they are all on youtube trying to make money from videos rather than actually trading the coins they push including BTC maximalists. Think to yourself, if BTC and crypt was so great why would these famous (in the crypto space) bother making so much content if they were just getting rich off the crypto? Because they know it is ending soon and content creation is their backup plan.
XRP is the only coin right now being used commercially and making money for it's use. BTC is just a store of value right now and a casino gambling chip. Every other alt coin including ETH is a gambling chip. The only alt coin I can think of which is actually being used to some degree at a commercial level with some small success is PWR. But the fact it was built on the ETH network will also be its downfall unless they can work out a way move it off there onto it's own blockchain.
Business people with money and companies DON'T GIVE A SH#$ if something is decentralised or not. What they want to know is, does it work? Is it efficient and fast? Can it reduce cost and make them money? It's all about the bottom line not some idealistic approach to tech and nonsense.
Right now crypto is just a big casino for traders and that is why there is ZERO interest by the mass public for it right now. People were only interested once BTC hit 20K. Now they got burnt (those who entered) and most people won't have a bar of it. The actually crypto community is it's worst enemy by constantly sh#$%ing on coins they don't like and promoting coins they do. Instead of praising the coins that actually solve problems and denouncing the pie in the shy white paper coins that have done nothing for years (yes I'm talking about you ADA) and just cost people money who invested in these sh#$ coins.
Whether the community like it or not. XRP not only is here to stay and being used commercially but it will be the global dominant crypto coin once all supply is finally released.
At its current price I would say it represents incredible value and an opportunity that doesn't come around to often in ones life time.
Just think when BTC was worth $0.01 and some people took a chance investing in it a few years ago at that price. Yes there would of been a tonne of people laughing at them. But who is laughing now? And those who invested in BTC back then for that price didn't really have to wait 20 years to become multi millionaires and in some case billionaires.
RensBruin
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@Jessica_H, I totally agree on all your statements, but im just referring to a possible turning point that is claiming to be on the 3th of juli.
By many this is going to be an important moment for crypto as it "can" set precedence for the regulatory decisions in other countries across the globe.
You should know that India is the worlds fastest growing economy this decade.
It will also soon be the world's largest country by population, if it isn't already. Put together, rapid economic and population growth will soon make India the world's fifth largest economy overall. In the 2020s it will likely overtake Germany to become the fourth largest, trailing only the United States, China and Japan. Measured in purchasing power parity terms, it's already number three.