Contrary to some uber ripple shills, I personally don't really like ripple. It's centralized, and stands for everything which I basically don't like.
However, I can't deny the brutal pumping potential behind this coin. In the past, it always was one of the best performing coins.
However, I am pretty convinved that it will NOT pump in 2019.
2019 is accumulation year, and many are disappointed the ripple didn't grow much, now that BTC went from 3k to 13k. Ripple in that same time barely moved.
Why?
Well, if we look into the past, it did EXACTLY the same in 2016-2017.
While BTC was already rising like crazy, it didn't move a lot. Instead, it was building a wedge from which it then would launch, over a full year after BTC had already started rising.
I think it will do the same again. Doing a wedge, like the one I drew, and then when most people are frustrated, and sold their XRP because it just won't rise, then BAAMMMM, it will start in
early 2020 to do a brutal rally.
Now, how high will it go?
If the 2017-18 rally was to repeat exactly like that, we'd see a 200 USD ripple. Now, before you brutally flame me as an XRP shill, let me say: I believe this to be unrealistic.
It will entirely depend on how high BTC will go.
If BTC goes to 100k, I think Ripple realistically would go to 30 USD, with luck 50.
If however BTC goes higher than we all thought, say 300k-500k, then indeed we could see 100-200 USD ripple.
But again, this is an ultra optimistic best case scenario, and we should not trade according to best cases, but more according to optimistic estimations.
I've bought quite a lot of ripple in the last months and I will add more, now that BTC might dip a little, XRP could hit 30 cents again. I will add to my longterm position when that happens and hodl XRP for 1+ year.
Because as Vespasian said: Money doesn't stink :)
However, I can't deny the brutal pumping potential behind this coin. In the past, it always was one of the best performing coins.
However, I am pretty convinved that it will NOT pump in 2019.
2019 is accumulation year, and many are disappointed the ripple didn't grow much, now that BTC went from 3k to 13k. Ripple in that same time barely moved.
Why?
Well, if we look into the past, it did EXACTLY the same in 2016-2017.
While BTC was already rising like crazy, it didn't move a lot. Instead, it was building a wedge from which it then would launch, over a full year after BTC had already started rising.
I think it will do the same again. Doing a wedge, like the one I drew, and then when most people are frustrated, and sold their XRP because it just won't rise, then BAAMMMM, it will start in
early 2020 to do a brutal rally.
Now, how high will it go?
If the 2017-18 rally was to repeat exactly like that, we'd see a 200 USD ripple. Now, before you brutally flame me as an XRP shill, let me say: I believe this to be unrealistic.
It will entirely depend on how high BTC will go.
If BTC goes to 100k, I think Ripple realistically would go to 30 USD, with luck 50.
If however BTC goes higher than we all thought, say 300k-500k, then indeed we could see 100-200 USD ripple.
But again, this is an ultra optimistic best case scenario, and we should not trade according to best cases, but more according to optimistic estimations.
I've bought quite a lot of ripple in the last months and I will add more, now that BTC might dip a little, XRP could hit 30 cents again. I will add to my longterm position when that happens and hodl XRP for 1+ year.
Because as Vespasian said: Money doesn't stink :)
Comment:
This analysis here is of interest for determining the time of breakout for XRP:
Which also hints at an early 2020 breakout date.
Which also hints at an early 2020 breakout date.
Comment:
I just wanted to add the following scenario: Bitcoin goes straight on from here to make new all time highs, pushing to 40-45k.
In this case of course, XRP will ALSO make new all time highs this year, that is clear.
But ONLY if BTC pushes for new all time highs directly in this bullrun.
If BTC hits 40k, I can see XRP hitting 10-15 USD, but probably not more.
The 30-50 USD bull target would have been for BTC hitting 100k in 2021.
If BTC is faster, then XRP is also faster, and also does not go so high as initially thought.
We'll have to see what BTC does, XRP will act accordingly.
In this case of course, XRP will ALSO make new all time highs this year, that is clear.
But ONLY if BTC pushes for new all time highs directly in this bullrun.
If BTC hits 40k, I can see XRP hitting 10-15 USD, but probably not more.
The 30-50 USD bull target would have been for BTC hitting 100k in 2021.
If BTC is faster, then XRP is also faster, and also does not go so high as initially thought.
We'll have to see what BTC does, XRP will act accordingly.
Comment:
BTC seems to be taking the slow route, the normal route.
Therefore we can expect XRP to remain in the wedge until early 2020, then it will start pumping, given that BTC is around the 20k area already. It will not start before that.
Therefore we can expect XRP to remain in the wedge until early 2020, then it will start pumping, given that BTC is around the 20k area already. It will not start before that.
Comment:
The breakout to the downside which I drew in the original chart for January 2020, might happen now.
This here is a nice good ol fakeout to the downside, to shake out some weak hands. I am loading up on more xrp.
This here is a nice good ol fakeout to the downside, to shake out some weak hands. I am loading up on more xrp.
Comment:
Take a look at my older chart here:
Apparently it will do what I initially thought. Long sideways in the channel around 0.2-0.4 USD for a long time. Exactly like back in 2014-2016.
Apparently it will do what I initially thought. Long sideways in the channel around 0.2-0.4 USD for a long time. Exactly like back in 2014-2016.
Also, that the 200 USD maximum target was pulled out of my ass without any reasons etc.
So, let me please clarify a few things in order to avoid such statements in the future :)
First, the reason why 200 USD would be the absolute maximum I see, is, that it's the exact extension from the two previous peaks as can be seen here:
Also, I always said this is an EXTREME BEST CASE SCENARIO ! But some people apparently can't read :)
Therefore, I think the likelihood to really reach 200 is not so high, but in crypto everything is possible, so I of course also would like to point this possibility out.
200 USD would be the target, if XRP was to repeat the same growth as in 2017-2018.
An argument was also: But but but...MARKET CAP MUCH HIGHER NOW !
Well yes, market cap is much higher now, but first of all, from my experience market cap is an artificial construct in crypto, and only a few % of coins are actually traded on exchanges. Therefore much less people are needed to move the price than it would be the case for the real market cap.
Secondly, this time, probably 10x as many people will get into crypto as in the last bubble, because crypto adoption WILL take place, it is inevitable, only a matter of time, until crypto is so widespread that everyone will use it.
Also, why I think 2020 will be the big year for the XRP pump, not 2019, is that XRPBTC needs to fall further, as can be seen in my XRPBTC analysis. Historically, XRP also pumped with a very long delay to bitcoin, so it will probably only start pumping when BTC reaches old ATH, and starts making new ATHs.
I hope that clarifies some things. Before flaming me, please at least take the time to read what I write and also go through my other analyses. Thanks :)