ArKain

XRP: The great Tribulation

POLONIEX:XRPUSD   XRP / U.S. Dollar
1. Introduction

Is XRP starting a new bull-run? This question is legitimate… XRP took up 20% in a couple of hours! It is quite unexpected as we have not seen such momentum for weeks!

Let make things clear and extinguish all useless euphoria; XRP has won a battle but all enemies are not defeated yet.

Please, have a look at my last post if you need more details:

2. Methodology:

In my previous analysis, I have identified a couple of resistances and supports and they were used to describe XRP price movement since 2015.

Today, I would like to keep that set up in the radar but add more details and arguments to nuance my previous view on XRP about:
i. the current supports and resistances and will describe what it entails to the future of XRP price
ii. the Elliott Waves Theory to identify where XRP is currently moving
iii . price extension/retracement through Fibonacci, Pythagoras and other mathematical sequences
iv. Geometrical figures that could confirm XRP price movement
3. Analysis



As XRP just crossed over 2.111 and as I believe it will find it as a support for at least the next days, I would like to focus more on the next indicators.

In that sense, I have added a new enemy that I called The Great Tribulation 2.3 (in red). It is extended from the same method as 2.111 but extended to 2.3 instead.


We can see that this exactly where XRP reached $3.40 in Jan 2018. Moreover, 2.3 is also finding a culminating point with the Resistance of Feb 2018 (Orange) as well as the Golden Support (Yellow 4.772).

I would like to stress out the importance of 4.772 and why I think that 2.3 will play a key role with the Feb 2018 resistance at $0.50

Since the beginning of crypto, every single time XRP finds 4.772 as a support to begin its bull run. It happens 100% of cases. Can I confirm that if XRP crosses above this resistance and find it as a support, there will be another bull run? Most likely! I will explain why afterward.

Mini Bull Run 2015



Continuation bull run April 2017 and Dec 2017



So, today, where are the resistances and supports engaged in the war?

a. Supports:
a. 5.236 (green)
b. Support Feb 2018 (orange)
c. Short term support that was a resistance (purple)
d. Currently EMA34 (red)
e. Currently parabolic 2.111 (white)


b. Resistances
f. Resistance Feb 2018 (orange)
g. 4.772 – Golden Support/Resistance
h. Currently EMA55/89/134 on the daily chart
i. The Great Tribulation 2.3


Be aware that the last 2 times, XRP failed to cross over EMA55, succeed just before while crossing over 89 and 134 but failed in February 2018 to cross over EMA55.

Today, it seems that XRP has difficulties to cross over EMA55 again


If it succeeds it will have to deal with both EMA 89 and 4.772 and EMA134 right after, so I do not think XRP could break straight all these resistances.

On the other hand, I think XRP has the potential to reach $0.41 at EMA89 touching 4.772 then retesting a second time 5.236 at $0.29 to gain some energy and break the long term support (orange) as well as the Golden Support at $0.50

I am also more convinced by this scenario based on the energy that developed the first wave (bare in white) at the culmination point of both support Orange and Purple.


We can see that there is a price level of 0.014 (which is an extension of 3.14 -that is used to draw the entire figure). It is actually crossing in a lozenge 2.3 – The Great Tribulation, 4.772 the Golden Support/Resistance and the Orange resistance


XRP seems to move inside this number 3.14 – so let’s see.


However,

I would like to be clear!

If XRP is not able to break above EMA55 – it will probably break below 5.236 (green). The next stop is at $0.20…



NB: for finding 2.111
a) I have drawn a slope from the bottom to wave “iii” (August 2014 to 17 May 2017)
b) I have drawn a circumference of 2.111 (in white) which is an extension of the square root of the golden ratio 0.236:
a. 55/233 = 0.236
b. 1+0.236 = 1.236
c. √1.236 = 1.111
d. The extension of this number is 2.111 (1.111 + 1)
c) I have drawn a trendline along the previous slope from the bottom to wave “iii” with the constant “pi”, which is “3.141592653589793”. I have used “pi” as an axe and it perfectly matches the price movement of XRP inside the circumference of 2.111, you can see that from this number, I have been able to draw my resistances and supports in orange and purple.
d) I have drawn a trendline in yellow in the circle along 3.14 but this time; I have used 4.772 (time level) which is the extension of “pi” (√3.14) +3. Remember that 4.772 perfectly matches with the slope 3.14 that I have drawn
e) I have drawn a trendline in green through 5.236 (time level) which is an extension of 0.236. Remember that in proportion 5.236 perfectly matches 2.111 white parabolic circle (Point “b” previously described)



j. What about Elliot waves?

I like Elliott Wave Method very much because with the price extension, it helps to provide an overview of the price action but it is sometimes difficult to start counting the first wave…




A) First possibility

Because XRP has already reached it first wave above 0.786 – vis-à-vis the second wave, we could assume that the third wave could potentially reach 2.111 on the resistance (orange) and correct slightly on the Golden Support 4.772

To make this scenario happens, XRP has to break above all the EMAs (34,55, 89 and 134) and it has to cross over 4.772… The fourth wave could correct slightly, so it would make sense… and the fifth wave should be in the intersection of the culmination point previously described.

A good starting point for this scenario should be XRP crossing over $0.34 (EMA55 on the daily chart )



B) Second possibility
XRP actually started its first wave the 12 of September 2018 and is currently finishing its 3rd wave – EMA 55 is too strong and XRP has to find a support on EMA134 on the hourly chart, which correspond to 0.444 retracement .

If this scenario happens, I expect a weak fifth wave, maybe truncated at 1.333 or at 1.886








C) Conclusion

I think XRP has a lot to do, it was a great momentum today with 20% growth but it has to break EMA55 on the daily chart – it is so important!

Every time XRP fails to break EMA55 ($0.341), it goes down and down and this time, it will be a return at $0.20.

If XRP is able to break aboveEMA55, it will have to deal with EMA89 and 134 but the third wave will be on its way so I do not think they will cause so much troubles.

Moreover, XRP will potentially test the golden support 4.772


The RSI and the MACD are crossing over on the daily chart and are showing a bullish momentum. Will it be enough to get over EMA55?



So you understood that everything is played now! Watch out!

I will keep you updated, please share, comment and like my analysis!


Ma maîtrise est sans faille et mon skill sans égal.
Magic`ArKaiN
Sep 19
Trade active: XRP is currently moving between EMA34 / 55 on the daily chart.
Volume is also invited to the party and XRP has reached nearly 700.000 million dollars today.




Let’s go back and see when XRP crossed over EMA55


17th of July 2018 – it failed to remain above EMA34
You can see that it took 4 green candles to succeed but failed during the same day. Then; It finally succeeded the next day –but failed the day right after.



3rd of June 2018
Again, it took 4 green candles to cross over EMA34, then it failed the day after. Then it took 3 days to succeed. It is like XRP was compressed by EMA55 resistance and EMA34.



13th of April 2018
XRP succeeded to cross over EMA34 straight - it took 6 days to cross over EMA55 and 3 days to cross over EMA89 and 134



Like today



Try to see how XRP formed its momentum around the EMAs on the hourly chart…
1) corrected EMA34 (red)which corresponds to 0.721***
2) retraced 0.886*
3) corrected EMA55 (yellow), which corresponds to 0.666 retracement
4) retraced 0.945**
5) corrected EMA89 (blue), which corresponds to 0.721 retracement
6) Retraced 0.886
7) corrected EMA89 (blue), which corresponds to 0.777 retracement


*Nb
0.8866 = √(0.618)
0.618 is a golden ratio = 134/233
**0.945 = √0.886
0.886 = √0.786
0.786 = √0.618
0.618 = 134/233 (golden ratio)

***(infinite nested radical)

What we currently see is that XRP has difficulties to cross over EMA55 on the daily chart.

Hence; I mostly see XRP leading the battle on the hourly chart – and that is the reason why I have taken the example in April. XRP crossed over EMA34 on the daily chart as it just did yesterday (18/09/2018) – In that sense, I think this comparison is relevant.


My red cards for XRP
1) Going below EMA34 on the daily chart
2) Going below EMA134 on the hourly chart
3) Going below 0.666 retracement

My bullish signal
1) Testing EMA 34 / 55 and rebouncing to higher highs on the hourly
2) Finding a double EMA bottom (89 or 134)on the hourly
3) Going above 0.945 retracement
4) Going above EMA55 on the daily


Where do you think the price of XRP will move today? Please, like, share and leave a comment!



Ma maîtrise est sans faille et mon skill sans égal
Magic`ArKaiN
Sep 19
Trade active: If XRP remains bullish, in my opinion (not trading advice) I would see the bellow entries as possibilities:

First entry at EMA34: $0.314 (lol - this number coming again)
Second entry at EMA55: $0.343

Sep 20
Trade active:

On the daily chart, this is one possibility if XRP is able to break above EMA89, which corresponds to 0.666 - Evil Retracement – in red - and in our case a strong resistance because it will very likely confirm a third wave at $0.46 and a fifth wave at $0.523
More info about the Evil Retracement here:
In that sense, I think it would be logical to enter at EMA55 which corresponds to Evil Extension 0.666 - in Yellow - ($0.338)
Or
At EMA89, which is the Evil Retracement 0.666 – in red - ($0.396)

What is your opinion?
Sep 20
Trade active: IF XRP is not able to break above EMA89 on the daily chart, I think it will test EMA55 (yellow) on the hourly chart, bulling back at $0.37 and then correcting around $0.313 on EMA89 (blue)
critical juncture here at .34. I find myself checking back to this chart; you're bang-on
+1 Reply
Excellent Analysis, and gets better as we are near long term support may 2015. Wanna do an update?
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Are we going back to 29 cents here!?
+1 Reply
waiting for an update :) so hype rightnow !! :)
+1 Reply


I agree with your wave count. I'm expecting us to dip to $0.31 or so before continue the next wave up.
Reply
Awesome Analysis - Following.
And XRP managed to break 55 EMA right now. Question is, will the price close above it and hold it the next day? ...
+1 Reply
Thanks for the analysis, very in depth! However, although I read your methodology for finding your values and agree that they seem important, I'm confused how you then applied them to the chart. As in how you created a trendline based on 3.14 or drew a parabolic circumference of 2.11? I would love to be able to apply these to my own charts.
+1 Reply
ArKain LA18WOLF39
@LA18WOLF39, please refer to my counting through my analysis: “XRP the face of the beas”


(attached to this analysis - right above the post comment)
Reply
Thanks ArKain, love reading your detailed anaylses, very informative...keep up the great work...thanks
+1 Reply
Stop loss?
+1 Reply
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