We are now in a highly decisive range.
Basically, if BTC dumps violently (unlikely), we can expect xrp to fall to our first .
If btc stays calm, we can expect xrpbtc to correct to 0.000105 btc at least (currently 0.000094), which could give us a target of 1$. Further correction upward could mean the second . Watch for momentum at those levels
If btc bull runs hard (fairly low probability before a retrace further down to 7k), we could see xrp trading in range some more, until btc calms, and xrp catches on to the upward target.
Overall, the biais very short term (few days) is still up, but keep in mind we are in a long term down trend
Potential strategies are buying the rebounds of the lower support, with a stop loss below it, or selling at upper resistance with a pending order above it. That exposes the trader to fakeouts, but has the best overall success chance for automated trading. If you are live, I would suggest alarms and judging the strength of the breakouts
Disclaimer : I had a big position bought when btc was at 6100$ this week, composed of a trade stack, a swing stack, and rebuilt my investment stack. I liquidated for the trade part quickly, and the swing part of it two days ago at 0.8$, as stated on my bitcoin MAP idea. I am now waiting for a trade-stack short term opportunity
We are still in correction and fakeout area. Depending on your time-strategy (scalper within a day, or trader within days, or investor for weeks/years), if you are here for a quick buck, I suggest starting to look for exits, or move the stop loss to entry point
vs USD, there is more
Mid term target : 1.70$
Don't get too carried away, the bear market is not officially over yet. Keep your invest stack, but take profits often with the trade and swing stacks. Better safe than sorry
I expect some correction, however it could also make a last bull run. Trade at your own risk
Take some profits, or move the stop loss (with part of the stack at least) at the red line around 0.98$, to lock some profits. We can see the first signs of short term weakness
Mid term, I believe it has more to give, but will probably need to rest a bit before
XRPUSD target : 1.35$, 1.65$
Feel free to switch some of your xrp to btc at any value above 0.000129
If btc bulls more, it will outperform some of the alts
Touchdown! for xrpbtc
Scalpers can make some bucks
Scalpers get ready to unload
You have to analyze both XRPUSD and XRPBTC at the same time
Disclaimer : I'm not
4th belly showed to be above the 3rd, which is a good sign of the general channel. Let's see how it unfolds, but xrp is ready to move if it must. We are following closely with a stop loss, that we moved above break-even. Currently at around 10% profit (less if the stop loss triggers, but still profit), and waiting for the confirmation of the iH&S and/or ascending triangle to move the stop loss higher. In the meantime, we are free to spend our time doing something else
Upper belly could not hold, then trend line broken, then lower belly compromised, while btc is showing weakness, and xrpbtc is under down trend still
In case of a slow drift down until btc re-muster some strength to retry the bullish path (see my other idea to see the channels), yellow circles are zones to look for reversal. Either aggressively buy and watch reaction, or go to lower timeframe to see what happens. And more importantly, watch the momentum used to go there
Breaking it makes us follow btc to the yellow circles (7200$ still)
The pattern can still fail (and we have a higher chance of retesting lower values soon rather than continue bullish momentum), but for now we are following the price movement upward, locking some % for sure, and ready to get a lot more.
You can never predict the market movements accurately 100% of the time, but you can manage your risk to approach 100% win rate, and with big gains, small losses. That's the essence of trading!
XRPBTC broke downtrend and is currently retesting it. If it holds, xrp will outperform bitcoin!
If not, and btc breaks out, xrpusd will rise too, but underperform, which means that if this downtrend support is broken, you should sell your xrp for btc or even LTC
Same as always, on lower support for aggressive entry, or at breakout upward. This triangle seems undecisive for now, and fractals of ETH's bear market in July suggests falling down to 1$. So be careful. But fractals are only indications, trade what you see, what you expect
and vs btc :
Stop loss below the fib line, around 1.06$. Wait for an entry around 1.07-1.08$ to minimize risks in case btc dumps more
If it falls, be ready to pick it up at the black arrow targets
Moment of truth
Second (and probably last) try of breaking out. xrp/btc trying to breakup, fighting well on a rounded belly, while btc stabilizes, letting alts do their show for a bit of time
I am traveling a'd can't monitor but ascending triangle projection seem to be 1.4$. Feel free to sell some for btc as xrpbtc is still in downtrend but in rebound, to hedge in case btc outperforms xrp by doing a huge rally
vs USD :
Very good impulse after retesting the moving average (xrp loves this kind of fakeouts), and we retested the dual stop. You can buy back with a stop loss below the blue support for further uptrend, it seems we are not dumping
vs BTC, the show stealer :
STRONG rejection with high volume before even the touch of the belly or the support. Very good sign of the wyckoff accumulation. Everybody expects a fractal of 2017 (xrpbtc down to 0.00002 again) but I don't think so. For now, we are jumping everytime we touch the resistance, so it is looking good.
xrp and btc should not outperform each other too much for now. Slight advantage (for now) for btc, but i xrp might give us a big bull run in the mid term (i don't think yet)
We are scalping our way downward on btc, looking to buy xrp back as soon as we see signs of reversal
Stay frosty, very very risky trade, DO NOT do it unless you know what you are doing. I'm sharing this one for experienced/learning traders
Watch for reversal in case we double bottom around 1.05$
Meaning we might get btc to hold its value, and xrpbtc (which was bleeding down) spike up to retest the resistance, making xrpusd up
Just speculation, but good try, as we are near strong support
Stop loss is just below support (in case btc shorters get it down and we begin the downtrend again
VERY RISKY trade, we are at the top, near a resistance!
If it fails, be ready to pick up some XRP at around 0.95$ for either the dead cat rebound, or the continuation of uptrend (we will judge the rebound)
Breakeven on support break
Will try to catch lower
Get ready to buy soon as we are touching 1$ finally!
Recent situation overview :
We still have our invest stack from way below, and sold part at 1.2$, and the rest of the swing/trade stacks at 1.12$ stop loss
We tried to catch some bottoms, but the rebound was weak, and the downward momentum is increasing, so we used caution by scalping few %, while having safe 0% or positive stop losses following uptrend or at entry points
We are still looking for bottoms, but piercing through the 4h 100MA is not a good thing. Reversal to new highs can still occur, but better get a late night train, than getting caught up pants down
We will continue to do neutral biais scalping/daytrading while keeping a "gut feeling" bullish biais, and start to add from now on (0.92$) small swing investstack adding slowly on downtrend, and keep invest stack intact
So for this reason, I made a new MAP series on request, about XRPUSD. You can see the swing trade supports there also
I consider this trade closed for now.
Because as I said in my bitcoin analysis :
' In bear market, every uptrend is guilty until proven innocent '
We did a huge uptrend without major pullbacks. We will only take safe trades to take opportunities and be get capital stuck. That is why we have the investment stack. As you saw, it dropped a lot more since my update