Nidalas

[MAP] XRP Very short term

BITSTAMP:XRPUSD   Ripple / U.S. Dollar
Let's look at XRP for the very short term

We are now in a highly decisive range.

Basically, if BTC             dumps violently (unlikely), we can expect xrp to fall to our first support zone .
If btc             stays calm, we can expect xrpbtc             to correct to 0.000105 btc             at least (currently 0.000094), which could give us a target of 1$. Further correction upward could mean the second resistance area . Watch for momentum at those levels
If btc             bull runs hard (fairly low probability before a retrace further down to 7k), we could see xrp trading in range some more, until btc             calms, and xrp catches on to the upward target.

Overall, the biais very short term (few days) is still up, but keep in mind we are in a long term down trend

Potential strategies are buying the rebounds of the lower support, with a stop loss below it, or selling at upper resistance with a pending order above it. That exposes the trader to fakeouts, but has the best overall success chance for automated trading. If you are live, I would suggest alarms and judging the strength of the breakouts

Disclaimer : I had a big position bought when btc             was at 6100$ this week, composed of a trade stack, a swing stack, and rebuilt my investment stack. I liquidated for the trade part quickly, and the swing part of it two days ago at 0.8$, as stated on my bitcoin             MAP idea. I am now waiting for a trade-stack short term opportunity

Stay frosty
Comment:
:-)

We are still in correction and fakeout area. Depending on your time-strategy (scalper within a day, or trader within days, or investor for weeks/years), if you are here for a quick buck, I suggest starting to look for exits, or move the stop loss to entry point
Comment: Very short term traders looking for exits for xrpbtc, now is your target at 0.0001035

vs USD, there is more
Comment: Almost 20% profit in an hour, don't forget to take some profits, it's never wrong and decent money
Comment: Short term target vs USD : 0.90$
Mid term target : 1.70$


Don't get too carried away, the bear market is not officially over yet. Keep your invest stack, but take profits often with the trade and swing stacks. Better safe than sorry
Trade closed: target reached: 0.92$ touched several times
I expect some correction, however it could also make a last bull run. Trade at your own risk

Comment: Congratulation, it's over 1$

Take some profits, or move the stop loss (with part of the stack at least) at the red line around 0.98$, to lock some profits. We can see the first signs of short term weakness

Mid term, I believe it has more to give, but will probably need to rest a bit before
Comment: XRPBTC target : 0.000129 btc

XRPUSD target : 1.35$, 1.65$

Feel free to switch some of your xrp to btc at any value above 0.000129
If btc bulls more, it will outperform some of the alts
Comment:
Touchdown! for xrpbtc
Comment: The selloff started

Scalpers can make some bucks

Comment: Selloff will take a break
Scalpers get ready to unload

You have to analyze both XRPUSD and XRPBTC at the same time



Comment: Scalpers unloaded with some good nifty %, and we saw a big drop. You can start covering your position again with a stop loss below red line, but be careful, we are entering "greed" territory
Comment: I got asked if I am entering again
Disclaimer : I'm not
Comment: Potential entry :
Comment: Stop loss below the yellow belly, we are in bear
Comment: 3rd "belly trading"

Comment: After selling at 0.99$ at the exit of the 3rd belly, we entered again at 0.94$ at the pink arrow, and were ready to jump ship to re-enter at the second pink arrow (or add, if we missed the exit)



4th belly showed to be above the 3rd, which is a good sign of the general channel. Let's see how it unfolds, but xrp is ready to move if it must. We are following closely with a stop loss, that we moved above break-even. Currently at around 10% profit (less if the stop loss triggers, but still profit), and waiting for the confirmation of the iH&S and/or ascending triangle to move the stop loss higher. In the meantime, we are free to spend our time doing something else

Comment: Note : for those who sold the "crypto trading" stack as recommended at 0.000134 btc, please refer to the btcusd analysis on the next move, as xrpbtc just broke uptrend, there is no reason to get back in yet

Comment: Situation update :

Upper belly could not hold, then trend line broken, then lower belly compromised, while btc is showing weakness, and xrpbtc is under down trend still

In case of a slow drift down until btc re-muster some strength to retry the bullish path (see my other idea to see the channels), yellow circles are zones to look for reversal. Either aggressively buy and watch reaction, or go to lower timeframe to see what happens. And more importantly, watch the momentum used to go there

Comment: So far so good

Comment: bullish over 0.95 by symmetry

Breaking it makes us follow btc to the yellow circles (7200$ still)

Comment: 5% profit so far, put the risk-free near entry stop loss, and wait for the fireworks
Comment: I got asked my methodology as for why I switched from "bearish, waiting for 0.9$ or lower" to "bullish if we stay over 0.95$", and I felt I can share some of it to public

The pattern can still fail (and we have a higher chance of retesting lower values soon rather than continue bullish momentum), but for now we are following the price movement upward, locking some % for sure, and ready to get a lot more.
You can never predict the market movements accurately 100% of the time, but you can manage your risk to approach 100% win rate, and with big gains, small losses. That's the essence of trading!

Comment: XRPUSD looking good thanks to btc breakout (not confirmed yet, but looking real good)

XRPBTC broke downtrend and is currently retesting it. If it holds, xrp will outperform bitcoin!
If not, and btc breaks out, xrpusd will rise too, but underperform, which means that if this downtrend support is broken, you should sell your xrp for btc or even LTC

Comment: Starting to be parabolic, be careful. Looking good



Comment: 1.15$ short and swing stack term stack closed
Comment: Get ready for a possible re-entry



Same as always, on lower support for aggressive entry, or at breakout upward. This triangle seems undecisive for now, and fractals of ETH's bear market in July suggests falling down to 1$. So be careful. But fractals are only indications, trade what you see, what you expect





and vs btc :
Comment: Possible entry with low risk high reward :
Stop loss below the fib line, around 1.06$. Wait for an entry around 1.07-1.08$ to minimize risks in case btc dumps more
If it falls, be ready to pick it up at the black arrow targets

Comment: Second try of the support

Moment of truth

Comment: So far so good. Situation map

Second (and probably last) try of breaking out. xrp/btc trying to breakup, fighting well on a rounded belly, while btc stabilizes, letting alts do their show for a bit of time

Comment: Currentlu unning at +22% profit at 1.2$, you can take the daytrade stack out in vas of bearish double top, or move the stop loss upward.
I am traveling a'd can't monitor but ascending triangle projection seem to be 1.4$. Feel free to sell some for btc as xrpbtc is still in downtrend but in rebound, to hedge in case btc outperforms xrp by doing a huge rally
Comment: Small breather with a computer. Situation chart :

vs USD :

Very good impulse after retesting the moving average (xrp loves this kind of fakeouts), and we retested the dual stop. You can buy back with a stop loss below the blue support for further uptrend, it seems we are not dumping


vs BTC, the show stealer :

STRONG rejection with high volume before even the touch of the belly or the support. Very good sign of the wyckoff accumulation. Everybody expects a fractal of 2017 (xrpbtc down to 0.00002 again) but I don't think so. For now, we are jumping everytime we touch the resistance, so it is looking good.
xrp and btc should not outperform each other too much for now. Slight advantage (for now) for btc, but i xrp might give us a big bull run in the mid term (i don't think yet)
Comment: After taking profit at 1.2$, our stop loss triggered just below the support line at 1.12$

We are scalping our way downward on btc, looking to buy xrp back as soon as we see signs of reversal
Comment: Scalper buy area

Stay frosty, very very risky trade, DO NOT do it unless you know what you are doing. I'm sharing this one for experienced/learning traders
Comment: Time your own exit, but be ok with 2-4%, the real buy area is around 0.92$ for swingers !
Comment: Bingo, 2.5%
Comment: You can finish to sell the scalp and most of the daytrade now at 1.10$, we are touching MA100 on 5min chart, if you took this trade.

Watch for reversal in case we double bottom around 1.05$
Comment: potential catch up train for the BTC bull
Comment:

Meaning we might get btc to hold its value, and xrpbtc (which was bleeding down) spike up to retest the resistance, making xrpusd up

Just speculation, but good try, as we are near strong support
Comment: Entry is now

Stop loss is just below support (in case btc shorters get it down and we begin the downtrend again
VERY RISKY trade, we are at the top, near a resistance!
Comment: ... Sorry for the spam. I am on travel, and not using my usual hardware. I keep hiting the "update idea" by misclicking
If it fails, be ready to pick up some XRP at around 0.95$ for either the dead cat rebound, or the continuation of uptrend (we will judge the rebound)
Comment: Well, we tried :)
Breakeven on support break
Will try to catch lower
Comment: Dear hunters, this is the moment we have been waiting for

Get ready to buy soon as we are touching 1$ finally!
Comment: Our 0.94$ buy order filled, but I have no confidence in this bounce. I sold part of it with 4% scalp profit, and use it to lock some profits, rest is in stop loss, we will asset the situation on the retouch of the support
Trade closed manually: Stop loss at entry triggered.

Recent situation overview :
We still have our invest stack from way below, and sold part at 1.2$, and the rest of the swing/trade stacks at 1.12$ stop loss
We tried to catch some bottoms, but the rebound was weak, and the downward momentum is increasing, so we used caution by scalping few %, while having safe 0% or positive stop losses following uptrend or at entry points

We are still looking for bottoms, but piercing through the 4h 100MA is not a good thing. Reversal to new highs can still occur, but better get a late night train, than getting caught up pants down
We will continue to do neutral biais scalping/daytrading while keeping a "gut feeling" bullish biais, and start to add from now on (0.92$) small swing investstack adding slowly on downtrend, and keep invest stack intact

So for this reason, I made a new MAP series on request, about XRPUSD. You can see the swing trade supports there also
I consider this trade closed for now.

Stay frosty

why not?
Reply
@hi108, Hello,

Because as I said in my bitcoin analysis :
' In bear market, every uptrend is guilty until proven innocent '

We did a huge uptrend without major pullbacks. We will only take safe trades to take opportunities and be get capital stuck. That is why we have the investment stack. As you saw, it dropped a lot more since my update
Reply
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