dk.dusankovacic
Short

XRP move expected, welcome to hell!

BITFINEX:XRPUSD   XRP / U.S. Dollar
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Hell Guys,

welcome to my analysis. Today, we will have a look on XRP.

The formed bull flag from past weeks was not followed by expected upwards movement and resulted in downtrend triangle pattern . Currently we see the price being squeezed in very short candlesticks , expecting breakthrough in next few days. Looking in detail, we see the price moving between EMA 50 and bull flag bottom support line .87 cents (.5 Fibonacci level).

Let's have a look what the indicators say:
  • MACD is just about to pass a bearish crossover. Furthermore, looking at the MACD historical movement, we can see that there were two double bottom patterns formed one after another. Reasonably, we may expect third one coming in few days. So, simply... MACD indicates the price is going down.
  • Looking at RSI , we see also a triangle pattern formed which is about to break. Assuming the downwards trend is longer (and therefore stronger under current no volume circumstances), we can expect it to be kept.
  • Stoch RSI is currently heading south to confirm the downtrend. If it gets below 20, it can be understood as confirmation of the downtrend.

So, what is next? Considering signals from the indicators, absolutely no volume , and state of the chart, the higher probability option is that the price will continue in downtrend movement stopping at support level at around .70 cents(which is also Fibonacci .786). On the other side, we may expect a reversal if there is a huge fundamental event coming(it has to be huge like partnership with Google , XRP is very resistant to news). In this case, we may expect a lot of buying pressure stepping in. However, this scenario is unlikely.

I am not a financial advisor and this is not an advice to trade. Do your own research and do not trade on my charts! :)

Regards,
D.
Hey Dusan, I loved your analysis. Pretty clean writing. Your assumptions are valid. But look at BTC as a lead indicator currently.
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If you have a moment to explain why .70 cents coincides with .786 Fib. Any help you can offer is greatly appreciated because I have .786 around the .86 cent mark. Not to say youre wrong but more like I think Im right:) Thanks
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I have a triangle on my charts too, but see a long breakout. Perhaps I'm wrong! We'll see shortly.
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