Ripple versus Everything (USD, ETH, BTC)

I am currently of the mind that XRPUSD is going to have a small (for crypto) retracement and then basically blow the heck up. A third point of contact on the rising support gets a 19% pullback and then stages us for a breakout to the upside the hight of the triangle, about a 100 percent increase, depending on where it occurs. The retracement seems pretty certain as the MACD shows us on the brink of a bearish cross. The price action and indicators show Hidden Bullish divergence, with the price making higher highs but the indicator making lower lows. This divergence occurred on the daily chart, and so that is pretty powerful. Obviously we will need to see if we catch support again, and if we do, hopefully we will do it with some bullishness. Once again, the cheat sheet:

Classic Divergence (Trend Reversal)
Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator
Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator
Hidden (Trend Continuation)
Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator
Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicator.

Ripple and Ethereum
XRP is doing very well against ETH, with XRPETH entering into a falling wedge last week. Additionally, this falling wedge support is buttressed with classic bullish divergence and is predicted to outperform ETH about 20% on the next uptrend.

Ripple and Bitcoin
This chart is the most ambiguous. The black outline is a nice inverted head and shoulders set up that would perform almost 60%, and probably at a much steeper rate than the XRPUSD or XRPETH set ups but the right shoulder is somewhat confounded depending on how you view the structure. The bold black lines show that hidden bullish divergence has set in on the RSI and price action faintly on the 12h (and more pronounced on lower timeframes, check that out yourselves) while the blue lines show classic bearish divergence has topped the move, creating a rising wedge. That means if you place the XRPBTC breakout at the neckline in a textbook manner you are set up for a high risk trade and a uncertain set up. The MACD isn’t very helpful at this point, it has the same bearish divergence on top but because it is slower than the RSI (12 periods to 7) we cannot see if it is turning up yet. If it does turn up immediately then it would have the no divergence. That is one of the problems working with a lagging indicator. I am not showing it, but if you cut the length of the MACD to 7 periods then you do see a congruent movement of MACD and price action. In short, rising wedge versus ascending triangle.

My current thought is the bearish divergence has already done its work, it Is time for the hidden bullish to do its work, and then when we get to the neckline we can evaluate from there. Based on what I am seeing on XRPETH and XRPUSD, I fell confident we will break to the upside

All the usual disclaimers apply. I am not a financial advisor and I don’t know you or your finances. I am not doing anything until I see how XRPUSD retraces and hits the support line. If we blast through or even leak through I am taking this whole post, throwing it in the trash, and returning to the drawing board.

Comment:

XRPUSD has an inverted head and shouldres formation forming on the 1h timeframe time frame. IF that executes properly it will take us to the long term resistance that has been in play since the highs if late September and early October.
Bekow on the daily chart you can see the MACD histogram is on the decline but it does not look like the MACD itself is turning up into the signal line. This market has been moving down and sideways for too long for me to have a bullish bias based on convergence and a shrinking histogram, but the micro-structure goes a long way. The inverted head and shoulders still gives a micro-day swingtrade entry into a hopeful breakout and price-doubling.

XRP looks poised to move to the upside against ETH, with a accending triangle formation forming and the RSI flattening out to confirm technical resistance. The Hull MACD is developing a pattern I normally see when facing resistance. The ATR is at its lowest points since early November so I expect a vigorous move on this pair shortly. My personal bias is XRPUSD and ETHUSD will both break to the upside, just XRPUSD will do it faster.

XRPBTC hasn't been doing much recently but it does seem to be forming either a large accending triange with a slight upward bias over the last several months, or it is a falling wedge that might hit resistance once more time, looking at the subtle bullish divergence. Once again a low ATR suggest a big move is incoming.