jodahy

Took profit on XRPUSD , looking for retrace

BITFINEX:XRPUSD   XRP / U.S. Dollar
Took profit at .2750. I would expect a retrace soon based on bear divergence noted in this 60 minute chart and divergence of TK lines. For the intermediate term I am still long XRPUSD, though will look for re-entry with a smaller position at or slightly below the kijun using these doubled crypto settings (20/60/120/30). Still a very bullish picture on the 4H chart: T>K, price above an uptrending kumo, and Chikou span above price. Very recently had bullish T-K cross on the 1D chart, but kumo on that time scale is flat.

Upcoming Swell conference and its surrounding buzz probably fueling the price and volume action. I would have close stops on any long position still open after the conference is complete (runs Oct 16-18). If the news is more hype than substance, price could decrease quickly. Upcoming BTCGold and 2x fork bitcoin uncertainty also cloud the picture for XRP, though it obviously has done well compared to the vast majority of altcoins over the past week.

Point of interest: I saw a bear div on the 4H chart as well, but it was more subtle - it displays better on the 60M chart.

Disclaimer: I do own some Ripple; it comprises <5% of my crypto holdings.

Good luck.
Comment: Re-entered the trade on retrace on 10/9. Retrace was actually a little more than I expected. In retrospect my stop was set pretty close, and the trade stopped out while I was afk doing non-crypto work. I should have given the trade a little more room to breathe. Currently I'm set to re-enter the trade at .0245 (just above the 4H kijun). Adjusted stop for my comfort level is at .022 (the top of the kumo). Still bullish 4H plot. Still only weakly bullish 1D plot. Interested to see what happens to price during Swell.

Comments

Well spotted. Thanks for the analysis.

Great that you didn't let youself be pulled in by the hype. I got a LT position from way way back (before 2017), so not worth making possible mistakes on short term moves, but I do try to play around with a tiny amount on the smaller movements, and I did buy some more on the correction yesterday (under 5k sat).

Do you think it's likely we'll retest the crash low around 23/5k sat?

I'll certainly be paying attention to your analysis.
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