Nidalas

XRP, a speculative investment

Long
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD   XRP / U.S. Dollar
I am not going to make friends with this analysis. Ripple is for sure very controversial in the cryptosphere

However, the case is not all black, and those who says that it is a scam are just as speculative as those who says it has or will have a use.

Let's look at the 3 points

Catalysts : ripple is the first private blockchain/ledger designed for banks. It is highly centralized as more or less 60% of the coins are pre mined and held by the makers. This alone is enough to scare a lot of frightened cats. However, this also has upsides. The current crypto market as a whole is gone completely mad with FOMO, and while we might still be far from a real crash (or not, who knows when the music stops, but it's rather sooner than later now), the centralized aspect of XRP might be seen by a decent % of the the population as a safe haven (liberty is awesome on paper, but many run to papa when things gets real)
The sentiment is overall very bad, xrp being the ugly duckling of cryptos, but this has been priced in already with a huge retracement and 6 months downtrend. Yet the price holds spectacularly well. This should remind you of BCH and a lot more. Vicious or not, we are here to take profit, not to be right. The need for B2B (business to business) crypto payement is real, and even *if* banks don't ever use xrp, it might still be useful as a kind of paypal 2.0 for private business. Also, escrow lockup of most XRP is schedule for the end of the year
To be noted, SWIFT is already making its own blockchain, and former ripple founder of XML is trying to eat some chunks of market from ripple. Market is big enough for all of them, but these should be watched for the investors.


Fundamentals : Hard to say, since all is private. But what do we know for sure ? The protocol works exceptionally well and is, for now, hack proof. IF xrp get announced with a use, or as a necessity, or as the first "asset to share holding shift paradigm", we can expect a huge bump, from all of those who were afraid of the XRP / Ripple difference. Ripple being centralized, it has the potential to attract of a lot of business who dislike both banks and pure public chains. IT guys could see xrp in a (very big) niche somewhere between "do it yourself linux" and "windows"
One possibility being that ripple wants to control XRP's price to be stable, and this would make xrp a very good low risk long term investment


TA : we are looking at a wave 4 ABCDE classic triangle compression, with a 0.30$ bullish breakout confirmation, and 0.18$ accumulation. XRP/ BTC is at the lowest since a long time, and got rejected at 0.00002500, so we are in a low risk high reward situation. Min projection is 0.6$ for completition, with potentially higher targets marked with the red rectangles


trader : accumulate now at 0.22-0.23, sl at 0.21$, TP 0.26$, 0.29$, 0.39$ (2-3 days)
swing : sl at 0.185$, TP at 0.29, 0.39, 0.58$, 0.89$ (before april 2018)
investor : sl at 0.17$, TP at 0.58$, 0.89$, 1.15$, or hold forever, depending on fundamentals and risk aversion
Comment: On request, potential alternative scenarii in the short term

Green is very bullish, yellow is neutral or possible, red means "prepare to jump ship"
Comment: For now, the consolidation pattern is more likely, a drop to the blue support is still possible if BTC decides to drop hard. This would make a good entry opportunity for all 3 kinds of traders

re-Entry is also possible in the 0.22$ area in the demand zone. I expect another accumulation before the sell walls can get destroyed.
Low risk high reward trade, medium risk high reward swing, high risk high reward investment


The time of consolidation will probably tell if it is a dead cat bounce to the 0.25$ area, or the buildup for the next run


Stay frosty
Comment: Maybe a start ?
Price held very nicely a double bottom at previous resistance, then got rejected. For now, we are still on time, even if NEO stole the show with an early start, and BCH some of the asian market. This is good news


Comment: Nervous traders can lock in part of the profits since last share and let the rest run or move stop loss to entry point, in case of BTC correction dragging XRP. swingers and investors are very ok
Comment: Ascending triangle. Still on track, targets still applies. Re-adjustments possible depending on break strength

Comment: Break had no strength, looking for a possible ABC correction, because of btc going nuts at 10k. Swingers could take profit and wait for a real breakout to re-enter

Potential drop to 0.214$ or lower. Maybe even the blue line. Not confirmed yet, be on the lookout

Comment: Strong rejection of the drop. We might see a consolidation. Still expect a drop if prices does not break out upward soon

Comment: :)
Lines don't lie

Comment: After a free 7% trade in the last entry, i re-entered XRP right now at 20.9$. Targets not changed
Comment: Congratulations, +13% already since signal half a day ago.
Took the trading stack out with a big bag of money, and, leaving swinger and investment stacks with same targets
Comment: Remember, remember how everyone left Apple and thought it was done for, eaten by concurrence... One must remember that Ripple is before anything a company. They are here to make money, and they are composed of people.
However beautiful a project can be, it is worthless unless the people realising it are talented. What differenciated Kodak from Apple? Both were talented, both had an amazing new product (digital camera for kodak). But apple had market penetration. I am here speculating on a company with talent and a working product that satisfies a growing need, AND knows how to sell it, hence why i sleep well and take those trades with confidence. This and the fact that the swings and profit made this investment risk-free.
Yes, xrp/ripple decoupling amongst other things is a good reason to worry. Yes escrow is still not here mid december 2017. But one should ask : would they abandon such an opportunity for a quick cash grab when they are sitting on a gold mine? Would you?
In despair grows opportunity. And despair is almost there, as xrpbtc is almost finally rock bottom. Stay tuned and frosty. I still aim for Q1-Q2 2018 for xrp
Comment: For 100% crypto/BTC fans, the eagle has almost landed. Gold opportunity to build a low risk position

Comment: After selling the trading stack at 0.24$ (lines still don't lie) I did not re-enter because I had three better trades instead (one of them on BTC published, others private for clients), it seems the breakout might be coming soon. XRPBTC possible bottom and reversal (cycle end)

Comment: Current price is 0.341, local ATH 0.36$
BTC price 0.00002

Profit +63% vs USD +25% vs BTC in 5 days since share and still going


Congratz. Swingers can start taking profit just in case to re-enter lower. BTC lovers can wait for pullback and confirmation of floor. I expect more love to come, but it will depend on BTC
Comment: Short term target :

0.0000238 BTC & 0.39$
Trade closed: target reached: 0.398$ // 0.000024 btc
Swing target touched, can take some profit if you are cautious. Potential room for more upside
Comment: Some perspective of the current map

XRP vs USD, logscale, since it's start more or less
Comment: adjusted approximative probable final target for this run : 0.58$ // 0.000035 btc
Comment: Be careful. I noticed that some exchanges using USDT instead of real money have touched 0.58 and 0.55$ targets. Pump might be over for now, stay safe.
Almost 300% profit since our re-entry at 20.9$ 5 days ago
Trade closed: target reached: Bull's eyes 0.58$!
now you can start taking a good part of the swing money profit safely, as lower levels will most likely be retouched someday if you wish to re-enter, or look for another project with room to grow.

If you are a strong believer of XRP, you can keep half or 2/3 of the swing money to run. Or just take out your initial investment to run on pure profit to sleep well.
Happy 300%.

Investors can continue to just hold their core positions with the peace of mind that Ripple once again proved to be a serious company, and not hot air

Comment: 6 hours later, already in reach of swing target 2... return of more than x4 in few days.
This is insane, and why you never sell your core investments stack without a very good reason. Trying to guess the top of a bull run is near impossible. I expect 1$ to be much harder though, and the parabola went even more parabolic. these are symptoms that the end is soon I suppose. Although I expect a small stabilisation akin to LTC's before a potential drop. I started slowly selling back to BTC my crypto swing trade stack bought at 0.00002450 and 0.00001350, looking for other opportunities
Trade closed: target reached: Party is over for now, 0.85$ // 0.00005100 sold almost all swing trade for btc or fiat
Comment: Can reenter
vs btc
Comment: because x4 is not enough, here is a free 10% new year bonus
Comment: After perfectly calling the top in, get ready to re-enter soon with trade and swing stacks (or at least swing).

Comment: I get asked a lot about the current status of XRP

Volume is very low, traders and speculators went away for the most part, due to the lack of new catalyst, but nobody wants to sell because two announcements are schedules "before the end of the year". So it seems we found some equilibrium. This should remind you of the XRPUSD chart over the last months. There will be dips, and anything under the 4000 area should be met as a very good opportunity. It will serve as a shake-out of weak hands, consolidate/accumulate for a new bull, and drive out short term traders that accentuate every move, up or down. Then wait for a clearer situation. Depending on the fundamentals changes, there are different outomes :
- good, it will shoot up (5th wave), probably in a very brutal manner once again
- bad (or pure marketing), and there will be a huge panic dump. Either sell at your entry point (but risk of being shaken out), or wait for the storm to be over, and market to rebound, to sell at/near your entry point, as XRP will probably go back to accumulation for a while.
- no changes, but BTC makes a bull move, xrp VS usd is expected to not move or dip no more than 10% before recovering easily, while XRP vs BTC bleeds out. Either swing the trade, or just wait it out, as xrpbtc will recover easily as well (might take more time than vs usd)

Stay frosty

Comment: VS btc is showing weakness, while vs USD is staying steady. This means that new money continue to flow in and people don't cash in yet, but btc is stealing the show. I expect to buy back in the 0.00003090 area. It will depends on btc
Comment: Bought at 0.00003720 half of my initial swing trade stack sold at 5100, some of it added to the investor's stack
Comment: VS BTC, good call, xrp stable at 0.00004400


VS USD... this should remind you of something ;)

Trade closed: target reached: And BOOM
Target reached. trade position and principal of swing sold. More upside possible
Comment: Sold some of the vs BTC swing trade position around 0,000075 to buy the dip on solid projects (buy price around 0,000014). More upside is possible but we are entering dangerous zone as we saw some nervous selling. Still, never touch the investor stack, and XRP is known for its DEEP and FAST selloffs. Be content with what you have already!

My fiat order of 0,83$ got filled during the panic selloff, and since it is actually worrying that it got filled so fast, I soldback at current price of 1,05 the initial stake, and kept the rest to be added to the investor stack. Looking for something else, safer to invest in. Good luck and stay frosty
Comment: XRP looking to consolidate until the "household" names are announced. It will be either "sell the news" or "WOAHH amazon is using xrp" insane fomo like ltc did with steam

Add to that the rumor of coinbase addition...


On perspective, look at xrpbtc chart
It has room for a lot more, still, it is pretty insane

Comment: Might see a quick "jump ship" moment, as btc goes into momentary bull
Beware of fakeouts, like ETH also did
Trade closed: target reached: fakeout it was indeed :) closed 0,00019

Comment: Hello guys

What an incredible journey, but not so surprising either, wave 5 is almost always the fastest of the waves, especially after an ABCDE correction, which literally cleans the market of any seller that could exist. Now is another pair of jeans, as price went more than x11 since my buy calls, which of course means a lot of people are going to take profit, and another shakeoff is going to be necessary. For now the market stays bullish... until something triggers a steep fall.... For example btc going back into a corrective upward bullrun :)

This is also why you split your gains. Whatever happens, you had huuuuuge profits, and you let the rest roll, because the top is hard to find. Whatever if it falls back to 0.20 cents, you had so much profit, and personally (and my clients) invested them in so many other projects that gave (or will probably give) equal or bigger returns (ADA, POWR, NEO...)

And the very long term target is higher still (if you are willing to hold a long time)


This is what trading and investing is about : win, whatever the outcome or market conditions
Comment: Panic bought the dip at 0.000137 btc
Sold the safe trade stack at 164, for 20%
Will hold the swing trade few hours to see if we go in another bull, or dump some more. But XRP party might be over early
Comment:
Comment: Everyone is bearish about XRP because of the coinbase thing, and price action suggest an insane sell pressure, however while price vs USD is stable and showing some weakness, the price vs BTC did not do a fractal of early 2017 yet. There is still a decent buying pressure and the long term portfolio should be kept. Swing positions were sold at 174900 at the 20 SMA 4h touch, but half has been bought back, waiting to see what will come next, and ready to take an eventual (small) loss by selling the next dead cat rebound after so much profit.

The two household names were not revealed yet


Overall, this could indicate an overall cryptocurrency correction (all coins) so be watchful and take out your principal (initial investment) to buy the potential dip and minimize risk. Overall mid and long term trend are still bullish
Comment: Never sell in panic


Huge dip, but strong rejection. If you are nervous, you can lower your entry to only the profits of last swing, but if you do, better do it now. High risk trade right now

Had a low buy order at 4h SMA (1.9$) that I just dumped to be safe. Adding half the profits as XRP to invest stack
Comment: My clients asked me "why dump in such a bullish rebound ???"
"To buy back lower, of course"

Trade active: Trade active @ 0.96€ (1.15$)
Will probably sell after rebound for btc, to take full strength of the double alt effect (dipping harder, but recovering faster, partially)
Comment: Trade closed at 1.39 because the rebound is still looking weak despite touching 12H 100 SMA. Happy with the profits
Comment: Started re-adding a position at 1.19$ with the profits of the last trade
Comment: Buy area : 0.9-1$
Selloff is accelerating, local bottom is soon
Comment: active @ 0.87
Comment: Congratulations, seems it was indeed the bottom, current price 1.04, already 20% in 20 minutes. Take that stock market
Mid term target is for now around 1.75$

I will update with BTC and shorter term targets

Don't be afraid to take profits, market can do one more down and btc might steal the show
Comment: First short term target : 1.2$
Trade stack sold for 25% profit at 1.08 right now, because you don't joke with rent and food money !
Trade closed: target reached: 1.2 hit
+37% in less than an hour
Comment: Bought back at current prices (1.01$)

First target still 1.75$ and more later, when we can gauge momentum

Market can still go a bit lower to mark the divergence, volume not yet very convincing, and BTC not touching target on BTC / USD (not USDT) exchanges, but overall, it's a matter of few %. I'm buying
Comment: Double bottom was a possibility, but did not want to risk missing this rebound
Already 30% in profit. Feel free to start taking profits now if you want. Still my target is much higher

Comment: Close to the first take profit. Be ready. Already 50% profit

Comment: Buying back at 1.26 (current price) what i sold
Comment: Annnnd back to 1.55$. Don't be greedy and start to ladder out (selling small portions at every new local high) of your bags, in case the rebound was a fakeout (unlikely, but better prepared than sorry)

Targets still 1.75$ and 2$ short term. Mid term will depend on fundamentals changes, but for now i don't see any likely up movement for a few weeks
Trade closed: target reached: 1.75 just touched one minute ago, congrats !
Comment: I got asked the btc value targets
0.000145 (touched, was 1.75$, you can quickly buy back btc with the profit right now since it didn't move yet) safe target
0.000152 realistic target
0.000159 bullish target -> opens 0.0001749 target

I think btc targets *might* depend on which arrives first, btc targets or 2$ target. But 2$ being one of those btc targets will probably not be a coincidence

Stay frosty
Comment: I put stop loss right below swing low, in case.
BTC not looking good, and i want to save the profits not taken yet above +50%
Comment: XRPBTC map i have been using for my telegram group to accumulate both more xrp and btc through swings

Comment: my telegram channel announcement of yesterday :

"#xrpbtc, more down possible also. Downtrend also broken, however, the minimum target for correction has been touched (0.000148), and the price against btc could deflate over the next days, even if #fiat continues uptrend. This is possible if BTC goes into a rally, which is a strong possibility. Uptrend over, and next phase of correction starts under 0.000122 (and does not rebound within the next 2 hours)"


We are at the 0.000122 levels now, so you can buy back some if you are a true believer of the fundamentals of XRP. Remember, it is speculative, don't get your emotions toward money blind you. Only invest if your *brain* and your vision of the future include a good place for XRP. If you are here only for the $$ / btc, you took your huge profit, have some left in case it goes banana upward again, now look for something else until we have a more clear view, or a much cheaper price.
For me, the market response seem weak, so I will not add more, even if my longterm target for xrp is much higher.

I think the time for BTC to steal the show again very soon
Trade active: Bought at 1.16$ // 0.96€

I will update with targets for USD / EUR / BTC
Order cancelled: You can sell at 1% win if you don't feel it. It's risky
Comment: This one gave some sweat. Scalpers can sell if they feel like it, we are approaching resistance
Comment: currently 1.4$ / 1.16€ / 0.000125 btc, you can sell some

Target is enough to resume correction. Keep some for if we have a trend reversal
Comment: currently at 1.02€ / 1.26$ / 0.000117 btc
#xrpbtc more and more bullish, #xrpeur and #xrpusd weak but overall bullish

The accumulation is getting insane. Expect any movement to be sharp and strong. Upside more expected. Targets to be confirmed by the first impulse, but we are aiming an almost double top, and quite possibly a new high. We are overall bullish, but depends on the overall crypto market health.

If the market choses downside, I expect more slow bleed or a clear rising wedge (slow upside with no volume or any spike/impulse) before the real move down

Comment: XRP / fiat rock stable at 1.3$, while XRPBTC is bleeding to 0.000113.

Seems like it is going back to 0.000093. From there, expect a dead cat bounce to 0.000125, which should propel XRP / FIAT quite a bit (somewhere around 1.75$ ?), since I expect btc to be around 14k

Comment: First 4h candle closed outside of downtrend !
Looking good so far. First target around 1.47$ // 1.22€ // 0.000124 btc
(ichimoku cloud + moving averages 4h)
Medium term targets higher
Time span : before 3rd february
Comment: This idea is not updated anymore, as BTC gave cue to all buy and sell strategies

However, I just want to prove that "finding botoms" can be done

Quote from my telegram group, where I signalled to buy for a scalp :


"Saladin,
momentum going mania

Saladin,
volume getting insane

Saladin,
first rebound wave 4 almost engage"


Ended up with +43% profit at close after few minutes

Comments

Great analysis and very well explained! By the way, I am newbie and learning the analytical skills. Therefore, I have a very quick question - how did you arrive at the target profit? It definitely looks like it'd break out, but from where are we getting the 0.30$ bullish confirmation?
+1 Reply
rony.kris rony.kris
@rony.kris
Especially, the swing targets.
Reply
Nidalas rony.kris
@rony.kris, More precision on the 0.3$ value : it is to attract new investors. 0.3 is the ceilling for the last months, and breaking it to new highs will signal to the world that XRP is not dead, and create a rally. 0.4$ is a sure collection of articles in magazines and the begining of a new longterm rise.
Look at BTC after the china FUD that caused the drop to 3k, and the rally once hesitation was shattered when 5k was broken.
+1 Reply
Nidalas rony.kris
@rony.kris, Hello, and thank you! I strongly suggest that you look into Fibonacci retracement levels, in combination of looking at for round numbers (where the bulk of people cash in or get in mostly). The explanation is a combination of human psychology, mathematical modeling of exponential growth, and self fulfilling prophecy

For breakout, we need to finish off the sellwalls so the sell pressure is eliminated, and only buyers and holders are still in the game. This means go over 0.3$ (conservatively) or 0.26$ (aggressively), and stay ABOVE the price levels for an extended time (and not just a spike). I suggest you to look at my current NEO analysis for an example of what is developing as a high probability breakout
+1 Reply
rony.kris Nidalas
@Nidalas, thank you for your response. I appreciate the time you took to explain it. i'll take a look at your analysis of NEO and comment.
Reply
rony.kris rony.kris
@rony.kris, @Nidalas

Will you have the time to review my analysis for few of the currencies please? May be i am asking too much, but criticism and feedback will help my learning.
Reply
Nidalas rony.kris
@rony.kris, You are welcome!
Feedback is always important, and for me too. Don't hesitate to contact me by private message, and we will see what we can do for you

Also, if I get enough requests I will publish for other coins, like I got for BTC right now
Reply
Are you going to be calling any more XRP trades? Also, is the telegram group open?
Reply
Nidalas maddamanda
@ashipka, Thank you for your interest!
As I said on the last update, I continued to trade xrp/usd (and neo, omg, etc...), however calls for "buy" or "sell" were done on the bitcoin trading idea. So when I said I bought at 6100$ for example, it means that as soon as bitcoin touched below 6100$ I bought back my XRP, ETC, NEO... at market price, as the whole market moved with it in perfect synchronisation.

I will open a new idea for XRP specifically as soon as I see some decoupling of alts and btc, which should happen in the next days if btc can hold bullish movement, or in few weeks if btc is still bearish

Cheers!

Reply
Nidalas, I started to follow you since we spoke in Goldbug's post, but wouldnt you consider opening new post ideas when dealing with new situations? When I receive and e-mail update about an old idea, the browser doesnt open in the last update. I have to manually scroll untill I find it, losing some time. It's rather annoying. I think the update should be used only for the same trade situation, at least that's the way the analysts usually go.
Reply