Exsilium

$XRP #Ripple - Bullish Divergences - Potential Bottom - LOI Dive

BITSTAMP:XRPUSD   Ripple / U.S. Dollar
I apologize that I was not active during this dump, really bad timing as I have been at the Cisco Live conference.

In my last analysis I put a bunch of trendlines in place, a break of which would signal direction. As you can see from this chart, once the price broke down past that bottom trend-line it just nose dived.

There are two potential EW counts. The good news is that the first count has Wave 5 ending here, the bad news is that if the alternate count is true, were looking at 0.46-47 which is Monthly S1 as well as just above the lowest point this year at 0.459.

There are obvious Bullish Divergences right now which I have plotted in red. To be clear, the wave bottoms in price have been lower than the waves in both Fisher and RSI .

It goes without saying that 4H RSI is oversold.

There is worse scenario that is possible and I would be remiss if I didnt point it out here. Lets assume that that either one of these counts are correct. That would mean we would see a short ABC count, potentially up to ~0.60, but then a wave count that would make a new low below 0.45.

VERY IMPORTANT - LOI took a major nose dive over the last two 4H bars. Also, LOI 50 and 100 EMA are turning down and are about to cross down. Price failed to follow LOI, but I figure its important I point it out here.

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As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice.

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Comment: The secondary wave count cannot be true because Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the impulse waves. Either Wave 3 is going to extend farther, which is going to push Wave 5 below 0.45, or Wave 5 is over and were in a correction wave for the moment.
Comment: I wont be able to post a chart tomorrow most likely. I will try to because I think were at a pivotal point, but I have to take an exam for the CCNP tomorrow bright and early, and then the last day of CiscoLive kicks off with a party at Universal Studios.
A different point of view:

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Exsilium InvestingScope
@InvestingScope, Thanks for the additional point of view. I think its to early to be predicting a box like that, but its entirely possible. I have been digging into data to try and see patterns in time lines for moves but havent found any yet. This makes anything beyond a week really difficult to nail down in my experience.

For the rest of you reading this, I always appreciate feedback like this, especially charts that validate the analysis, because honestly... were all guessing here, educated guesses, but still... guesses.
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You’re still backing the bullish divergence?! The last post I mentioned lower levels and you said you didn’t see it pushing under 0.65 again....what you’ve got to understand is no matter what technicals you find for XRP unless BTC follow up it doesn’t mean anything. We’ve broke a uptrend line as far back as 8/9 months, we’ve hovered under and around the 0.55 support. BTC has failed to break above the EMA again today, all signals are bearish and as it will continue XRP will it’s bearish run down to 0.4 regions minimum. Only hope SBI July 2018 opens to public may prevent the 0.3 regions. I don’t like to disagree but your last post you were quite certain it wouldn’t go under 0.65 when I said we could see 0.45, I think you’ve got to adjust your view especially the way the market is behaving, XRP is tied to BTC and sometimes looking at market behaviour is more important. Appreciate the post though.
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Exsilium Movali123
@Movali123, You present valid points. The problem I have is that Im analyzing XRP, not BTC or the market as a whole. That would be like analyzing AAPL, but charting S&P500. I constantly point out that there is potential any analysis could be invalidated by BTC making a move down. At some point there will be a divergence of XRP from BTC.

I have watched BTC dive and XRP only loose 0.01. I cant provide insight to XRP based on BTC data, it just doesn't work like that.
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Movali123 Exsilium
@Exsilium, this is why analysing XRP fails. The signs are still so clear we wont move up and XRP wont diverge from BTC not for a while anyway. They will move by different % but thats because each crypto holds their own support levels and so some move quicker than others. But most currencies are traded through BTC and until the market volume and buy pressure increases we wont go up, the end is near but still a leg down to go. Hope you didnt trade too much on the long side.
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Exsilium Movali123
@Movali123, I should also note that the bullish divergence played out and we bounced 0.03 and appear to be going higher outside of LOI not bouncing which concerns me.
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Thanks ‘Ex’- I’ve come to really enjoy your analyses and input- I appreciate your efforts my man, thank you much. All the best-
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Exsilium jeremy.jacques79
@jeremy.jacques79, Thanks for letting me know! I dont really get anything out of doing this, but I think Im pretty good at this having gone through the growing pains of loosing LOTS of money over the years and learning the hard way. With any luck, I can help you save money, if not make money.
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Different methods, but I see the same thing!
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Exsilium ramonbenavides12
@ramonbenavides12, Please share!
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