Taking a Bet on Breaking The Long Term Downtrend (XRP)

I'm also going to post this trade, because why not? I'm trying to get a handle on futures and develop a strategy that works well for me. Not risking a huge amount (some of you may know, I'm not much of a day-trader). But it's getting to the point in the cycle where trading some small portion of my portfolio may not be a terrible idea. TOTAL2 has held the 100d MA (as I said should happen if the market is in a bullish trend). These are mostly for practice, but they are real trades.

It seems as though XRP is aiming to break the long term downtrend. On the weekly, the downtrend is very clear, and perfectly respected.

XRP continues to get rejected at the 100d MA (green), while finding support at the 50 and 200 day Moving Averages.

This is also the longest XRP has been above the 200 day MA since the beginning of 2018. It's possible the asset is building a flat base here, and can shoot up pretty quickly. But let's face it, longing XRP is a bad idea most of the time. Catching a pump is fairly difficult, and usually traps buyers. So, even if it continues onwards towards $0.78 or $1.00, I will take 50% profit at 32 cents, and then re-assess. I'm also fully prepared to be stopped out of this trade.

ENTRY:
0.2490

TARGETS:
0.27
0.32
0.50

STOP LOSS:
Adjusted, depending on price action. Currently 0.2477.

On the downside, if XRP loses the 200d MA again and Bitcoin heads back towards 10-13k, I can see XRP heading all the way back down to some much lower levels. So a stop loss is probably the way to go here.

This is not financial advice. This is meant for personal use, speculation, and entertainment.

-Victor Cobra

Trade active

Comment:

If XRP fails here, there might also be another buying opportunity again in the 22 cent zone.

Comment:

Volatility is slowly expanding, so I expect the breakout (in either direction) to be quite large. Interesting to see this broadening formation occur as price generally moves sideways.

Comment:

Stop loss moved to break-even.

Comment:

Stop loss moved to take profit, a little above break even. Idea would be to enter lower if the bullish structure fails to hold for now. COVID could cause some more panicking for markets, particularly with no stimulus in sight.

Comment:

Major test here

Comment:

Starting to look like a breakout :) Will raise stop soon to lock in more profit. Would be nice to see the 32 cent level hit soon.

Trade closed manually:

Closed for profit near $0.27 (first target). Don't like how the market looks going into the weekly close. Will wait to find another trade.

Trade active:

Re-entered at $0.2678, first target at $0.35 (200w MA). Stop loss above original break-even price.

Trade closed: target reached:

Closed 1/3 of the position at 0.3140. Close enough to my first main TP of $0.32 and don't want to get greedy.

Trade closed manually:

75% of the position has been trimmed today. The remaining 25% will ride until much higher prices or until stopped in profit.

Trade closed: stop reached:

Stopped in profit, just below $0.45. Might take a break from trading XRP. Was fun while it lasted. Can still hit much higher targets - still holding my main spot position, with an average buy near $0.26.

Comment:

As I updated on my other recent ideas, I let go of my XRP spot position in favor of LTC after the SEC news. Amazing how XRP is still above where it broke out from the long term downtrend, despite this. Once the rest of the market corrects, XRP may go sub-$0.20 again. If it breaks back into that channel, it can go much lower.