UPDATE: Market revealing the scenario shown in early October.
See analysis from early October.
The lower trendline of the long term bullish channel is in play. We could drop down as low as .13 area before the bear completes. This is not required though, and the market could decide to head sideways until touching the lower trendline. What is becoming clear is that we are nearing the final stages of the bear market. This is typical of corrective Elliott wave patterns... with so many corrective patterns possible, they typically only become clear in the latter stages.
Time to begin looking for entry points for longs over the next few weeks and months. Safest bet is to wait for confirmation that the bear has been broken (small degree impulse waves followed by corrective waves that retrace 50-61% on 45 min and 4 hour timeframes).
The lower trendline of the long term bullish channel is in play. We could drop down as low as .13 area before the bear completes. This is not required though, and the market could decide to head sideways until touching the lower trendline. What is becoming clear is that we are nearing the final stages of the bear market. This is typical of corrective Elliott wave patterns... with so many corrective patterns possible, they typically only become clear in the latter stages.
Time to begin looking for entry points for longs over the next few weeks and months. Safest bet is to wait for confirmation that the bear has been broken (small degree impulse waves followed by corrective waves that retrace 50-61% on 45 min and 4 hour timeframes).
Trade active:
And here we are. Mind March 2020... price hit .13 at the lower trendline, and even tried to break down through it and was bought up on volume. If the trendline continues to hold, we will be setup for a near perfect wave 2 low. Last night, even the most hardened HODL'ers in crypto were shaken to their cores. The calls for crypto being dead were loud and uniform. We have almost an identical timeframe for the previous wave 2 of significance (not required, but it does fit very nicely). The trendline on the log scale is ideal. Now we wait for the bull to rise again from the ashes.
If you want a fundamental story/backdrop to help you wrap your mind around the charts... the US Central Bank is working on a plan to make UNLIMITED LIQUIDITY in the marketplace. Unlimited. Other central banks around the world will likely follow suit. The amount of fiat currency debasing to keep the markets liquid and asset prices from plunging is unreal. The outcome will be simple. Liquid, limited crypto will thrive in the market. XRP has a large supply, but it is a limited one. It also is the most utilized crypto in existence due to its speed and scale.
I have had critics that tell me that a trendline on a log chart isn't viable. My answer to them is to look at a log chart of the DJIA over the last 100 years then come talk to me.
To summarize. The evidence points to the fact that the bear market for XRP has just ended or is very close to ending. A smaller degree 5 waves up and 3 wave retrace will allow for a near perfect risk/reward opportunity... should prices experience a sustained break through the lower channel, then exiting will have minimal losses (a few pennies). On the other hand, the reward is in terms of $'s as a wave 3 will push prices up well beyond the wave 1 high of $3.3.
I gave you a gift with this one. You have had 5 months to prepare for this moment. Good luck out there. Stay well.
If you want a fundamental story/backdrop to help you wrap your mind around the charts... the US Central Bank is working on a plan to make UNLIMITED LIQUIDITY in the marketplace. Unlimited. Other central banks around the world will likely follow suit. The amount of fiat currency debasing to keep the markets liquid and asset prices from plunging is unreal. The outcome will be simple. Liquid, limited crypto will thrive in the market. XRP has a large supply, but it is a limited one. It also is the most utilized crypto in existence due to its speed and scale.
I have had critics that tell me that a trendline on a log chart isn't viable. My answer to them is to look at a log chart of the DJIA over the last 100 years then come talk to me.
To summarize. The evidence points to the fact that the bear market for XRP has just ended or is very close to ending. A smaller degree 5 waves up and 3 wave retrace will allow for a near perfect risk/reward opportunity... should prices experience a sustained break through the lower channel, then exiting will have minimal losses (a few pennies). On the other hand, the reward is in terms of $'s as a wave 3 will push prices up well beyond the wave 1 high of $3.3.
I gave you a gift with this one. You have had 5 months to prepare for this moment. Good luck out there. Stay well.