Ripple' has had an epic run over the past two days as have many others. 300%+ runs are seldom sustainable and are a signal for me to take some off the table as I posted. I shaved a little off several coins, but took a nice chunk off of XRP' and LTC' specifically. Can both turn and surge higher? Absolutely, just like I posted on BTC' a couple months ago (and it did though that statement was ignored); However, we have reached a mid term EW wave level (3) and this is where it simply gets tricky.
I have my current wave count shown above. This isn't the overall longer term count, but we went through several of the mid term and hit a longer term target quite quickly. (3) & (4) are from the longer term cycle (1) & (2) are not shown for clarity purposes. Now there is not much chart data we can use to compare previous corrections with so we work with what we have and look for other patterns. This is not like charting Johnson and Johnson.
Corrections simply are difficult period! Add to this how fast cyptos move it increases the level of difficulty dramatically. What I like about XRP' here is it has followed EW and Fibb almost like a foregone path. But when we get to the end of multiple cycles it is never really clear and the water is muddy to say the least, and so I always proceed with caution as this is where money management is crucial. Keep in mind a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to get back to even. Now both previous patterns are bullish corrections typical abc' corrective patterns in a "V" formation. In addition, as a general rule 5th wave corrections typically pull back to within wave 4. This is often the 0.618 fibb level. So be aware that we could correct further BUT I'm not so sure this is the case and here is my validation for why we may run higher from here.
1) we already pulled back to the 0.382 retracement level which is enough for a correction in a bullish market 2) new money is flowing into the market at an astounding pace, corrections will be short lived. 3) there are four likely coins to be listed on coinbase in January and Ripple' is almost a shoe in. This expands the market buyers. Why? well simply institutional and larger traders are not so eager to actively trade and hold their coins in the "wild west". Coinbase is insured! We will get speculators at this point, buy the rumor sell the news. 4) It's the cheapest of the blue chip coins!
So my strategy is simple and the same strategy I have for any correction. PATIENCE! It has taken several days for Litecoin' to correct and it appears to still be correcting. But XRP' may not follow this same path for the reasons above, BUT IT CAN!
I can always trade a breakout and use the profits to add to my core position. The last thing I want to do is buy here around where I sold, and lose those gains! I am in my coins for nothing and I want to keep it that way. NO RISK! Keep in mind my situation may be different from yours so its up to you to look at the chart, and decide for yourself.
Bottom line corrections are NOT a good place to trade. Too many variables! If you have no position in XRP' and want one, there is nothing wrong with adding a small position here and seeing if we pullback further, or buying more on a breakout. If you sold why would you buy here? I am willing to risk 10 cents for a reward of 30 cents if we pullback further.
We have entered the "Prince" era and we are charting like it's 1999, and everyone is a chart expert. Buyer beware!
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Update on XRP. It may be early but this is a nice bullish correction. I love consolidation boxes as they are simple to trade. Those that are new to the group may want to look at some older posts. I'm looking to trade here for the target levels, and will use the profits to increase the core position. This coin is most likely a shoe in for coinbase and I think we are seeing large investors entering.
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Patience is key right now as the market is on fire, but hot markets can be put out quickly. I like to look at previous corrections to see similarities. Now previously we pulled back to the 0.618 retracement level. So we could "possibly" pull back to the 50 cent area. However 5th waves are highly bullish so since the 0.382 retracement has been hit, we could consolidate and then break higher towards are longer term price target of $1.70-$2.
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XRP has had a strong movement and as I stated above we would look to trade. I am cautious of the trade due to the recent run ups, but momentum often leads to new highs. In addition this is #2 on the coins to add to coinbase. That happens $2.00 could happen quick and I want to be in.
Thanks for all of this @goldbug1 ! Really appreciate the efforts you put in. I actually held XRP at 0.27 and sold at 0.32 :( Would you recommend entering at the current 0.77 levels? I have about 1K from my grandmom's Christmas love and I want to make this trade on her behalf. Or would you recommend other alts? Don't feel like doing BTC with this 1k.
NIPE8723
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Hi @goldbug1 ,
Thanks again for the great analysis.
If it goes up at this moment and will hit a new high today or tomorrow (above 0.85$), where would you take profits and wait for a correction or drop?
Thanks!
goldbug1
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@NIPE8723, It would depend on where you feel comfortable, your plan and strategy and long term goals. Trying to time markets can result in missing out on large moves if your a long term investor then no need to try and time the market. Keep in mind I added an additional position Oct 19th as well as after, so my situation is different most likely.
daavid3
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Do we not think that coinbase will take forever to add another coin after the Bcash disaster? I wouldn't be surprised if they don't add another coin for 6 months and by then who knows which coin will be up there in the top of the list...
adamgdev
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@daavid3, definitely not six months. There's too much money at stake. They met the BCH fiasco head on, they are looking at the next coins as we speak
Ripple is a different animal. Check the charts of last big bull run (May 2017) and you'll see the similarities. I think the price has the potential of going high up to $2 for a short term.
Someone directed me to the GDAX/Coinbase guidelines for coins and XRP is automatically disqualified because it is centralized. That said, I strongly believe they will revise their guidelines and add Ripple anyway. It's hard to imagine they would be willing to pass up all of those trading fees that XRP will bring in.
FrancisRosario
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@Box1515, Let me give you the fact, XRP is decentralized it's not centralized..