News background & trading ideas for 05/03/2019

Today we are forced to return to the discussion of already quite tedious topics just because no significant new macroeconomic statistics was released yesterday. It is impossible not to discuss them. Topic A - negotiations between the USA and China. We should recall that burying the hatchet war could lend a positive momentum to the global economy. The greatest fear of the financial worlds is economic slowdown.It is worth noting news from China and reduction in the tax burden. Another positive news item for the economy of China and for the global economy is that China recently lowered (from 6.5% to 6%) its forecasts for the country's economic growth in 2019.
So, the news on the negotiation process between the United States and China is encouraging. According to the Wall Street Journal, the signing of the agreement between the countries may take place on March 27.

A sharp decline in gold prices was triggered by progress in the negotiation process and its approach to the final stage. Considering the fact that the support of the 1295 did not keep balance yesterday. We abandon the idea of buying gold on the intraday basis. Our basic concept did not change at all - movement above the 1295 - look for points for buying, and movement below - for sales. So, today we are going to look for points for gold sales with the stops above the 1295.
The situation is kind of similar in the oil market. But the key support is still in the game, so we continue to look for points for buying assets on the intraday basis. There are no contraindications for it. The resolution of the trade dispute between the United States and China is a positive sign for oil demand. At the same time, OPEC continues to maintain discipline and puts a lid on oil production. That is different from Russia. The Russian Federation continues to produce more than it was due to the agreement between Russia and OPEC + (according to the latest data, Russia produces 11.336 million barrels per day, but should be limited its production to 11.182 million b/d).

There is no changes with the dollar. Our recommendations did not change also- we are looking for points for selling US dollar on the intraday basis, especially against the Canadian dollar. The exception is the USDJPY where we are buying the dollar. We note that another Trump’s verbal attack on the Fed’s monetary policy is a background for our basic recommendation for selling the dollar. Remind you that Trump stands for the rate hikes. And although Trump's words are twofold. But do not underestimate him. How not to forget about the development of the political scandal around the figure of Trump. Nobody speaks about impeachment, but Muller’s testimony may lead this news on top, again.