4h timeframe Technical elements : -Bearish Chuvanov fork > XRP is retesting the 2nd line of the fork -Rising wedge > XRP is standing on the parallel of the wedge at the moment, which is the 1st target of a wedge pattern but not the last one -Double top > we should not pay attention to the big shadow of the higher high candle, obviously a FOMO shadow, just look at the candles bodies > we need to retest the neckline of this double top
-Oscillator (RSI and stochastic) bearish divergences > it began well before the higher high (with the FOMO shadow) and it continued after this higher high. (look at the red circles)
-VWMA55 passed under MA55 > volume is losing momentum (yellow circle)
-Are we beginning the 5th corrective wave ? I think so. Because if you try to do it another way, 3 will massively overlap 1. If I'm wrong and we already completed the 5th wave... we may be witnessing a bounce in next hours before dump continuation.
Why we're not in an ascending triangle ? Because XRP didn't touch the lower trendline 3 times but only 2 times. It needs to bounce a third time on this line to consider an ascending triangle pattern. We can at most, imagine it.
Fundamental analysis : -SWELL conference is over > no incredible news If you bought because of Santander news, you should know that they were already planning to use Ripple tech before, and their app is not designed with xRapid technology but xCurrent network. So it doesn't need XRP currency. SELL THE (NEWS) SWELL
Good luck !
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DAILY
-Bearish shoting star candle (yellow circle) followed by hanging man candle -Price going back in the big bearish channel (black channel). Can it break it so easely ? I don't think so. -Price rejected by kumo cloud resistance (ichimoku) -You can see oscillator divergences as well
-Price rejected by 0.618 fibo ratio during the bull retracement, but it's not so important.
> it needs to retrace lower before assuming a potential pump, or a continuation of this correction if BTC doesn't stand up.
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"Because if you try to do it another way, 3 will massively overlap 1" I wanted to say "4 will massively overlap 1"
UPDATE : XRP just tested the descending canal + C. Fork + kumo cloud + MA21 + 1th wave, at $0.545 level (important resistance level) This run ended with a shoting star candle on 4h timeframe, confirming a rejection. Trade still active
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Another reject on daily (and 4h as well) : bearish gravestone doji on kumo and channel resistances.
(when I wrote "canal" I wanted to say channel, by the way, sorry ...)
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Head and shoulder arrives at the party ! (however, it lacks some volume on the right shoulder)
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Hi,
I stopped my position yesterday at 0.476 (reversal doji + 0.618 retracement + micro falling wedge), I went here just to let you know. I'm looking to 0.49-0.50$ level to launch a new short, but it will also depend of BTC. Wait for big signals to make your decision.
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Shoting star candle and bearish divergences on 30min timeframe short @ 7618sat (bitmex)
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I made another Elliott count, more accurate as I think XRP will go lower IF BTC doesn't rush. -Shoting star candle on 4h TF > fake breakout of the bear channel + rejected by MA 21 -VMA21 still lower than MA21 > not enough volume to reverse the trend
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Trade still active
Trade closed manually
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Potential bounce for now, I'm not sure and I made enough money so I'm closing this trade for the moment.
I seen the head and shoulders form a couple hours ago. Too bad i was at work and couldnt short the market.
The_Wolf_of_Australia
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I love the charts mate! XRP is still looking bearish on my eyes. how are you seeing it at the moment.
wargolynch
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@Nour_Ali, I updated the idea one hour ago, still bearish ! :)
wargolynch
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@Nour_Ali, Thanks mate, I do what I can but I still have a lot to learn !
KSeimenov
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Don't you think the wave 5 has to end a little bit lower? When we have ABC correction, and wave B fails to go up to the start of wave A, it's zigzag pattern and then wave C ends beyond wave A. I see it like Wave A (0.8->0.43), Wave B (0.43->0.62), wave C (0.62->0.35-0.39).
wargolynch
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@KSeimenov, Thanks for your insight !
My wave 5 target is the green zone, still to defined with more detailed micro waves in the coming hours
It could form another elliott pattern, a flat for exemple
WXY + WXY + 12345, which is ... flat
wargolynch
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@Sessay, Regular flats : A = C
Running flats : A < C (a little bit, with oscillator hidden bull divergences)
Expanded flat : classic ABC correction
@Sessay, I also use this site. At flat corrections Wave B terminates near or above the start of wave A and is 90-123% of Wave A. Here Wave A is 0.8-0.43=0.37 and wave B is 0.62-0.43=0.19, so while wave B is ~50% of Wave A it's zigzag, not flat.
wargolynch
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@KSeimenov, Thanks for the explanation
Elliott is not the big picture in my TA (I only use the simple things) but it's always good to know !