I am trying out a technique called Wolfe Waves. You can google WW to learn about it.
Technically, by using this technique, oil will be back to ~70, into the trend. Then, the number '5' here shall be a fake break out.
Fundamentally, the current war may have a positive worldly-meaningful expectation soon.
The drop-into-the-trend may look crashy. We will hear a little chaos/fear/shock/whatever. But technical trader may remain calm and just look at the chart.
Additional idea, Oil will make Double Top (better if confluenced by a positive news) and take the Big Round Number 130.00, before crashing.