The chart is a mess, but I look at Tezos a lot and don't have time to clean it up and make it pretty, so let's just get to it. XTZUSD is having some serious growing pains, but I am just going to buy the fear all month. I believe the rest of October will be painful as the price keeps getting squeezed lower and lower, bit by bit, probably down to high $5s by the end of the month. During this time, money will flow elsewhere, and people will forget about XTZ for a while. As soon as the money flows back into XTZ later this month or in early November, I expect a big impulse move up to $20. Most traders plan to exit in the low $10s, but there's a decent chance they will get caught off guard by the size of the movement. This is a pretty speculative setup. I am not saying this will happen with 100% confidence, but it's definitely a possibility. As always, let's see what happens.
Comment:
I wasn't really clear in my initial post. We're definitely inside a buy zone right here and right now. I'm not waiting to buy the fear later, I'm buying the fear now. There is minor resistance at $7.5, and it's possible we could make a run up to $10 before the end of the month starting from this point, but I'm expecting a final shakeout down to the high $5.9s or low $6.0s before the final real impulse up move. I'm not selling any of this chop. Just holding until we inevitably break above the channel. I'm not even considering selling until I see a BIG move.
Comment:
Interesting drop to the $6.3s today. It simultaneously retested downtrend support and pinged off of the top of the anchor zone. Statistically, price is always 'expected' to drop into the anchor zone ($6), which is why I said in my original post that I predicted a fall for the rest of October to the confluence of downtrend support and anchor support.
However, there is always a small chance that the price can inflect before actually dipping into the anchor zone, which is always a precondition for the most bullish impulse moves. In summary, everything is still moving as expected, but I'm secretly hoping for early liftoff after todays drop.
However, there is always a small chance that the price can inflect before actually dipping into the anchor zone, which is always a precondition for the most bullish impulse moves. In summary, everything is still moving as expected, but I'm secretly hoping for early liftoff after todays drop.
Trade active:
Now! $5.1 is still a vulnerable area, but the drop a few hours ago is an ideal entry point from an overall likelihood and risk-to-reward standpoint.
Comment:
Also, forget about the pump arrow to $20. The likelihood of it following that trajectory right now is very, very low. Let's just prove that $6 support can hold at or above this area until the end of October so that we can see some positive price action throughout November.
Comment:
New analysis and updated price target can be found here:
