The chart is a mess, but I look at Tezos a lot and don't have time to clean it up and make it pretty, so let's just get to it. XTZUSD is having some serious growing pains, but I am just going to buy the fear all month. I believe the rest of October will be painful as the price keeps getting squeezed lower and lower, bit by bit, probably down to high 5s by the end of the month. During this time, money will flow elsewhere, and people will forget about XTZ for a while. As soon as the money flows back into XTZ later this month or in early November, I expect a big impulse move up to $20. Most traders plan to exit in the low 10s, but there's a decent chance they will get caught off guard by the size of the movement. This is a pretty speculative setup. I am not saying this will happen with 100% confidence, but it's definitely a possibility. As always, let's see what happens.
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I wasn't really clear in my initial post. We're definitely inside a buy zone right here and right now. I'm not waiting to buy the fear later, I'm buying the fear now. There is minor resistance at $7.5, and it's possible we could make a run up to $10 before the end of the month starting from this point, but I'm expecting a final shakeout down to the high 5.9s or low 6.0s before the final real impulse up move. I'm not selling any of this chop. Just holding until we inevitably break above the channel. I'm not even considering selling until I see a BIG move.
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Interesting drop to the 6.3s today. It simultaneously retested downtrend support and pinged off of the top of the anchor zone. Statistically, price is always 'expected' to drop into the anchor zone ($6), which is why I said in my original post that I predicted a fall for the rest of October to the confluence of downtrend support and anchor support.
However, there is always a small chance that the price can inflect before actually dipping into the anchor zone, which is always a precondition for the most bullish impulse moves. In summary, everything is still moving as expected, but I'm secretly hoping for early liftoff after todays drop.
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Now! $5.1 is still a vulnerable area, but the drop a few hours ago is an ideal entry point from an overall likelihood and risk-to-reward standpoint.
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Also, forget about the pump arrow to $20. The likelihood of it following that trajectory right now is very, very low. Let's just prove that $6 support can hold at or above this area until the end of October so that we can see some positive price action throughout November.
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New analysis and updated price target can be found here:
Tezos is due for a strong rally. Will likely pull a MATIC by breaking out of its macro resistance and flying off the handles in a very short period of time. $60 by end of November / December easily, $120+ by EOY beginning of next year, then some.
this is the most outrageous target. if we reach between 15 and 20 EOY in a stable way that will be great
B_Musk
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@obsessedSeafow5366, Outrageous because why? Because XTZ has been an aggressive under performer for over a year now so that should be how it always goes? If XTZ hits $120 EOY, that's about 16x in est. 75 days. I can list plenty of assets who've done that and much more in that sort of time frame, especially at the height of a bull market. Matic alone just did 40x in a similar time frame starting in Dec of last year after an extended period fo severe under performance. This is typically what happens, a good project under performs, pressure builds and then it bursts. Gotta make up for lost time.
twinorita
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I don’t think we are in stage of “fear” like you call it. Price had quite a deep correction and bounced off from 0,618fib area, where we can find a lot of confluence when doing proper TA and therefore I cannot see lower prices, not saying it cannot happen but it’s unlikely. Lets see..
swilton
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@twinorita, We're obviously not in a stage of "fear" at this immediate moment, but sentiment turns around quickly even on short timeframes. When I see social media posts from verified Tezos ICO holders capitulating at the bottom of recent dips ($5) because they fear a return to $2 - $3, there is certainly fear in the air. BTC fear and greed index was at extreme fear levels just two weeks ago. XTZUSD is near the top of the exponential channel it's been in for 3 years and XTZBTC just dropped -40% over the last 10 days.
There's no such thing as "proper" TA as you call it. There's traditional TA (which most of the time doesn't stand on its own), and there's non-traditional TA (which runs the full spectrum between laughably bad and shockingly good). In any of my posts if you see some kind of a confluence of blue (supportive) or yellow (resistive) horizontal lines or boxes, those are generated by an algorithm outside of TV which processes market data based on highly non-traditional TA and estimates where the price is both likely to return and likely to inflect. As long as it works...