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EuroMotif
Apr 25, 2020 11:01 AM

XTZ aiming for $3.75 but likely to Pullback soon (wave 4)  

Tezos / TetherUSBinance

Description

As you know, Tezos has been coming back with a vengeance.
Thus far it as been leading the market during recovery bounce.
Now approaching resistances that might end current sub wave.

$ 2.73/75 is immediate resistance, has been weakened.
$ 2.84/88 is wave ending resistance, should cause pullback.
$ 2.98 into $3 round has fibs reinforcing the pscyh, caution.

$ 2.57/60 should be reasonable strong support, strong bulls.
$ 2.35/37 needs to be Very Strong support, or bulls are weak.
$ 2.18/22 must hold or bull case becomes a very weak argument.

If numbers on chart are blurry, here is a Snapshot:

Comment

Moment of Truth

Here we are at the proposed Alternate target for wave 3
just entering the zone, resistance being noticed but not looking worried.

Lets see if bulls get through on just the first attempt.
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Comment

Resistance clearly noticed

2.8xx posing a threat, as expected
that secondary rejection from the lower boundary makes it more likely that was a top (for now).

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Comment

Pullback Started??

First dip from the wave 3 target


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Zoom IN (8 min) for a closer look
Perfectly topped and perfect Dip to the zone below.
Small bounce at zone below, but I doubt it will hold.

Time to start measuring the pullback wave for possible targets.

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Comment

Another Perfect Ping

Fell from top bondary to lower bound of plotted zone
a wee bit of a bounce here is expectable.
But any bounces this high should get sold into, lets see.
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Comment

Strong Bull, for sure.

Currently oscillating between the two bands
That could be a wave 4, because 4's are often sideways for a while.

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Zoom IN (8 min) for a closer look at the action around those zones
Nice Pings on all zone boundaries,
indicating all Fibs are still spot on.
So not much to do until break out.

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Comment

1st Target for wave 4 hit

Just hit our target for wave 4 and clearly reacted
Lets see if it holds, but that bounce is promising

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Comment

PIng

Nice reaction at bottom boundary of proposed wave 4


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Comment

Bounce looks good.

It did PIERCE the zone, so looks good but not AS good as it could have
Limit buys were filled. Watching closely. Moving SL to BE now.

Comment

First Layer of resistance

Blue fib added from Impulse at top
Blue arrows show some of the Pings that gave credence to that fib.
And now we have a reaction at the 1.618 which is expectable.
Above that we have the red zone from original plot, also resistance.

So some profits have been booked, SL at Break Even on the rest.

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Comment

^^ followup to last pic above ^^

That blue 1.618 definitely noticed
Now if it comes back down to the 2.236, it better bounce.
Ideally it does not go that fib at all, but if we get a Ping there, still good.

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Comment

Entering Key Resistance zone
might pullback a bit again

Comment

Sizzling against the Resistance
spent 8 hours so far stuck to the ceiling.

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Zoom IN (15 min) with Blue Fib of drop added (as seen above also)
We are now bumping into the blue 1.236.
But also reacting to the existing Red zone formed by higher tf fibs.

At this point the most bullish sign would be a clean Bounce off the blue 1.618
Thus far this appears to be a typical wave 4, sideways movement within a well defined range.
All in all I still think we have a realistic chance at running a wave 5 up to the next targets.

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Comment

Step by Step

Still making progress, past the red zone immediately above and into the 0.618 of the Impulse down
the 0.382-0.618 is what I call the "Impulse Core", and it almost always presents itself as the strongest part of the original Impulse. Lets see what it takes to get past it.

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Comments
notyourplumber
Thank you very much for your analysis ! Helps a lot for beginners like me ))
EuroMotif
@saidg1975, You are very welcome, and thanks for your feedback, keeps me motivated to publish!
ExchangeShark
Nice analysis, I would expect it to test $2.40
notyourplumber
Learning a lot from you ! Thank you for detailed analysis !!
EuroMotif
@saidg1975, Thanks for your feedback!
Glad to hear it helps to provide another weapon in your arsenal.
Erickchenn1
Thank you, very on point, you deserve more likes tbh.
EuroMotif
@Erickchenn1, Hello and thanks for your feedback!
RTurner090
Hey Euro. Great work as always. When do you decide when to enter the trade?
EuroMotif
@RTurner090, Hello friend and TY!
I like to "ladder" my orders. So I have buy limits sprinkled through a zone, starting a hair above, and down to a hair below.
Once some are filled, I make decisions on the remaining orders, maybe move or remove some, etc.
Ideally I like to see a clean and precise Ping on one of the fibs that makes a zone, in which case it will have it some orders, and then I might fomo some market buys to follow if the Ping bounce takes off strong....
RTurner090
@EuroMotif, If the trade goes against you do you take a stop and then try again at the lower fib boundary?
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