nicostran

XVG -A better idea: Mr. Elliott and the Ghost of Christmas Past

BITTREX:XVGBTC   Verge / Bitcoin
I wanted to update my last XVG analysis with a more thorough idea and a closer look.

The fib levels from the last rally of 2017 have held up pretty well, and have acted as somewhat reliable horizontal support / resistance for Verge.

With that out of the way, I see 3 scenarios that can be played out.
Before I get into them, I want to clarify that I have never held Verge, and haven't looked very far into the coin's fundamentals.
So this analysis is based purely on what I see on the charts, and the hype over a "mysterious partnership" which they are set to reveal on April 17th.

The first scenario (light purple): Megabull!
If you look at the first few waves of the last bull run, they actually look really similar to what we have now. It spanned 3 fib levels, and as of right now this rally has also spanned 3 fib levels. Last time after a brief consolidation (where we are now), Verge defied gravity             and had a really big wave. I don't think it's very likely, but with the supposedly good news why can't history repeat itself?

The second scenario (orange): Modest profits ahead
In this scenario, Verge has a little fuel left. If price manages to break above overhead resistance, I could see it easily making its way to the next resistance level . Every upmove so far has been steep, so I would at least expect a double top to form before serious correction can occur.

The third scenario (red): We reached the top for now
This is what my gut tells me is going to happen. Verge will attempt to retest the resistance, but will not be able to close above it, or even reach it. After this, a correction can take form. It would be wise to watch the support levels in blue and see how price reacts to them. If XVG bounces hard and begins breaking resistance again, that's a good sign. If the bounce is modest, or worse, there isn't one, you might want to exit for the time being.

The last scenario (red): You're a sucker!!
I hope no one will get burned here, but there is always the possibility that this was a pump based on unwarranted hype. If this is the case, we should eventually see a hard break of support. Do not even expect a double top to form if that happens. Volume may drop, price may range sideways, and then violent selloff could ensue. This is one of the reasons to set Stop Losses a percent or two below strong support levels. Look for a bullish engulfing candle to determine when adequate support is reached. Practice risk management and don't let yourself get duped too easily!

Alright, there goes. I know a lot of people really like to follow this coin.
Happy trading! :)

***Trade at your own risk, this is a volatile market, with the future unknown***
Comment: Just noticed my line for the 0.5 fib level is a tad higher than it should be. Look where the dash is on the fib indicator for the accurate level
Comment: This chart does not bode well in my opinion anymore, at least not in the short term. Verge made it up to 1450 satoshis, then spiked all the way down to the beginning of our first support zone. If you truly believe in this coin, you can hold, but risk management! Stop losses below support!
Comment: Price more or less followed the Blue / Third scenario, just in a very quick time frame. Let's see how the rest plays out
Comment: Price is consolidating in our first yellow zone by the support.
It may very well follow our blue path up to retest the resistance,
Or if it breaks, it will have to consolidate further, though it may find support before reaching our ~620 sats support
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