structuredtrader

Why an early fail can actually HELP a breakout

Education
CBOT_MINI:YM1!   E-mini Dow Jones ($5) Futures
This is a great example for traders of all timeframes to study. I don't really have time for people basing trades on wide zones - that's fine for analysis, but for a TRADE, you've got to see the fight at a specific level. When you draw these correctly, you can get a really great picture of evolving sentiment and balance of power shifts.

Most traders treat breakouts way too lazily. You don't just enter at a new High/Low. You NEED buildup.

Any naked attack from distance is likely to fail. But what if it only pauses, instead of crashing?

Do you redraw the level? Do you avoid the trade completely?

What works for me:
Talk out the developing scenario. A fail failed? Ooh, interesting. Maybe there's more power on the original side than expected.

Once the breakout's happened, how is the other side thinking? I was biased long, getting everything I wanted to see....but what would the Bears want to see? Probably a close back under the grey/yellow boxes, right?

But wait, now that we created another temporary level during the failed probe, there's another level price needs to break through before even attempting the yellow level and then grey boxes!

--> this makes for a likely bounce point, and creates several chances for late entries. Best of all, it means a breakout entry at the original level will be protected by that bounce and your trade stays green.

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