rockvuecap

Consolidation Forming within DOW Jones Futures

CBOT_MINI:YM1!   E-mini Dow Jones ($5) Futures
Looking at the DOW Jones Futures , I noticed a consolidation pattern forming. YM1! has been consolidating for the last two weeks or so, and it's next move in either direction will be a swift and powerful one. Introspectively, I am bearish on US Equities for a platitude of reasons, but I have to remain unaffected by my own personal opinions, and keep them strongly felt, but weakly held.

If you go back and look at past history, you can see that when a market reaches a top, or when a market is in a bubble, there is a last ditch effort and price action higher. How high is impossible to predict. What is possible to predict are the human emotions that cause these inflationary periods at end of bubbles. The end of a bull run is where you have "stupid money" come into the market. Money where friends are hearing from their friends that they're making money and the market is going up like crazy. It's this money that fuels the growth higher and prices even higher.

Because of this, we could very likely see the DOW jump through its initial resistance at 20670, and then venture to try its next resistance at 21155.

Safe to say I'll be watching for both of these scenarios. The probabilities are in line with a short thesis, however, if I am wrong, I hope I am smart enough to take the other side of the trade and ride the stupid money infusion.

All the best,
RC
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