Well, let's try to measure it - and "time it", if anyway possible. Look at the title chart! OK, so we just did it. No?!...
(The title chart is the simple ratio of US 30-Year Treasuries / Russell2000)
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** Note; The "Trend of Complacency", as depicted in the chart, in effect is the continuous - and precipitous - decline of "Vigilance" (investment discipline), i.e. the equivalent *** increase in Complacency ***.
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Here is the European Union equivalent of the above chart;
It confirms two, well known facts;
1) Europeans are not a "shareholder society"; 2) Since the entire existence of the EU is predicated on one, continuous crisis management, it stands the reason that they should be world class fire fighting experts by now. (Which does not mean that the EU, as a whole, is not one gigantic, slow motion train wreck in progress. - Which it is.)
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The current Risk On/Off properties of Safe Haven FX pairs;
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On a Foot Note;
You know you’re in a bubble
- When funding a 36-year stream of expected inflation-adjusted spending requires over 38 years of money up-front;
- When the median price/revenue ratio of S&P 500 components exceeds 3.3;
- When the amount of leverage in the system (U.S. equity markets) is now easily the highest in history, by any measure, not just in absolute terms! (relative to GDP, etc. Margin Debt/GDP = Margin Debt/Market Cap x Market Cap/GDP Showing insane over-valuation across the board!)
- In a world where speculators now value the stock of bitcoin at one-fifth the value of the entire U.S. monetary base;
- Where the current SPAC mania is identical to the South Sea Bubble in as much as: "Let them see not what they do!";
- and so on...
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The Weekly, As it stands today. A brief Trend Line break to complete the reversal in the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone). A perfect hit and reaction/reversal, as expected. Does Not bode well for equities on any time scale. This bubble is likely in it's final moments.
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Here is a different view of the same (Title) Chart;
Soon.. Monthly sell signal not there yet. Apple is a sell on daily.. Weekly.. Get past OP EX.
The epic drop you describe cannot be understated.. There is no amount of reason that will change the FOMO crowd....except margin calls
Nemo_Confidat
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@stockSMASH, No reason necessary. (Historically or otherwise.) Margin calls will do the trick. No amount of FOMO is any a competition for two simple facts;
1) Margin debt – the amount of money that investors have borrowed in order to buy stocks – is now at the highest level in history, not only in absolute terms, but also relative to U.S. GDP.
2) The present ratio of U.S. total equity market capitalization to GDP is 2.63. The historical norm (not the low!) is 0.78. - Which is about 70% below the current level.
The epic drop you describe cannot be understated.. There is no amount of reason that will change the FOMO crowd....except margin calls