It doesn't look as strong and promising as Wheat , but the pull back which started yesterday can go further up to retest 380 +/-area.
- Price reached a possible supp/res zone of 351-363 area. Heikin Ashi candle pattern with haDelta/SMA3 suggests there is increasing chance for a pull back to retest Kijun Sen and the Kumo.
- Upper key levels on the weekly: 384 / 400 / 420
I am in a small counter long position.
May or may not be correlation... but I think at the end of the day no one really knows what is the real driver behind a certain price action. That is the advantage of technical analysis: the only thing you have to follow is price and trends. You don't have to know in all details why it is going that way.
Yesterday I met one of my best friends, who is a professional investor (fund manager). This was one topic we discussed, so that you may have an excellent macro analytical skill and a great macro view on something, but if your timing is too early, you can suffer a lot before you'd be right.
You must never change your concept. Build a simple system with well defined entry and exit strategy + risk and money management. Ah, one more thing: you must build in volatility into your position sizing, by using ATR for example.