This chart is just a really lovely one to show you the real power of Ichimoku, and to show how nicely it works when something is really trending.
Corn had two really nice trends this year. In the bullish one from january I was involved. Unfortunately I did not pay attention to it later, and I completely missed this beautyful bearish move. At least this chart is an excellent one to examine and prove old truths:
- When something is not trending, Ichimoku can not help you. Actually it can, as it says mkt is not trending, don' touch it, just wait for the breakout and the trend to start.
- When something starts trending, it can last for long time.
- It is useless and impossible to try catching tops and bottoms. It is a lot better to enter into an existing trend with bigger confidence.
- you can ride approximately 2/3 of a trend in general with big confidence. But you also have to be very patient and ignore quite big noisy swings sometimes.
I have an other reason to put on this chart. This down trend was/is quite strong and nice so far. But it did not have any serious correction in it, while now we have a few warning signals here, that at least short term Bears should reduce short exposure.
Just like in Aug/2013: ADX is at extreme high level, while DMI lines started to converge a bit, and DI- crossed below ADX. This often signals a possible interim bottom. MACD started to point up a bit, close to a buy signal. Slow Stoch crossed up in oversold zone, turn above 20 soon giving a buy signal too.
The bearish momentum was so quick, continous and strong, that Price got far away from both the Kumo and Kijun. (Means averages could not catch up). If you measure it, now it is even further than it was 7/July, when most thought the horizontal support of 408 would hold.
So despite the very bearish Ichimoku setup, I think we may see a sharp bounce and correction from here. The possible corrective tgts are 373 / 387-395 (gap fill) / 405-408 (Kijun retest). This also means volaitility will pick up. So if someone is short, probably it is a good idea to cut back the exposure. Going long outright I can not recommend, but due to possible Vol pickup, maybe a Long Call option for 1 month maturity is a good idea to play this possible bounce with a safe bet.
Corn had two really nice trends this year. In the bullish one from january I was involved. Unfortunately I did not pay attention to it later, and I completely missed this beautyful bearish move. At least this chart is an excellent one to examine and prove old truths:
- When something is not trending, Ichimoku can not help you. Actually it can, as it says mkt is not trending, don' touch it, just wait for the breakout and the trend to start.
- When something starts trending, it can last for long time.
- It is useless and impossible to try catching tops and bottoms. It is a lot better to enter into an existing trend with bigger confidence.
- you can ride approximately 2/3 of a trend in general with big confidence. But you also have to be very patient and ignore quite big noisy swings sometimes.
I have an other reason to put on this chart. This down trend was/is quite strong and nice so far. But it did not have any serious correction in it, while now we have a few warning signals here, that at least short term Bears should reduce short exposure.
Just like in Aug/2013: ADX is at extreme high level, while DMI lines started to converge a bit, and DI- crossed below ADX. This often signals a possible interim bottom. MACD started to point up a bit, close to a buy signal. Slow Stoch crossed up in oversold zone, turn above 20 soon giving a buy signal too.
The bearish momentum was so quick, continous and strong, that Price got far away from both the Kumo and Kijun. (Means averages could not catch up). If you measure it, now it is even further than it was 7/July, when most thought the horizontal support of 408 would hold.
So despite the very bearish Ichimoku setup, I think we may see a sharp bounce and correction from here. The possible corrective tgts are 373 / 387-395 (gap fill) / 405-408 (Kijun retest). This also means volaitility will pick up. So if someone is short, probably it is a good idea to cut back the exposure. Going long outright I can not recommend, but due to possible Vol pickup, maybe a Long Call option for 1 month maturity is a good idea to play this possible bounce with a safe bet.
